The
eurozone crisis is a bank crisis posing as a series
of national debt crises and complicated by reactionary
economic ideas, a defective financial architecture
and a toxic political environment, especially in Germany,
in France, in Italy and in Greece.
Like our own, the European banking crisis is the product
of over-lending to weak borrowers, including for housing
in Spain, commercial real estate in Ireland and the
public sector (partly for infrastructure) in Greece.
The European banks leveraged up to buy toxic American
mortgages and when those collapsed they started dumping
their weak sovereign bonds to buy strong ones, driving
up yields and eventually forcing the whole European
periphery into crisis. Greece was merely the first
domino in the line.
In all such crises the banks' first defense is to
plead surprise - ''no one could have known!'' - and
to blame their clients for recklessness and cheating.
This is true but it obscures the fact that the bankers
pushed the loans very hard while the fees were fat.
The defense works better in Europe than in the U.S.
because national boundaries separate creditors from
debtors, binding the political leaders in German and
France to their bankers and fostering a narrative
of national-racism (''lazy Greeks,'' ''feckless Italians'')
whose equivalent in post-civil rights America has
been largely suppressed.
Underpinning banker power in Creditor Europe is a
Calvinist sensibility that has turned surpluses into
a sign of virtue and deficits into a mark of vice,
while fetishizing deregulation, privatization and
market-driven adjustment. The North Europeans have
forgotten that economic integration always concentrates
industry (and even agriculture) in the richer regions.
As this process unfolds the Germans reap the rents
and lecture their newly indebted customers to cut
wages, sell off assets, and give up their pensions,
schools, universities, healthcare - much of which
were second-rate to begin with. Recently the lectures
have become orders, delivered by the IMF and ECB,
demonstrating to Europe's new debt peons that they
no longer live in democratic states.
The U.S. advantage
The eurozone's architecture makes things worse in
two major ways. While the EU has long paid some compensation
to its poorer regions, these structural funds were
never adequate and are now blocked by unmeetable co-pay
requirements. And the zone lacks the inter-regional
redistribution channels to households that the U.S.
has developed in Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid,
federal government payrolls and military contracting
among other things. Nor do German retirees settle
in Greece or Portugal in large numbers as New Yorkers
do in Florida or Michiganders in Texas.
Second, the ECB refuses to solve the crisis at a stroke,
which it could do by buying up the weak countries'
bonds and refinancing them. The argument against this
is called ''moral hazard,'' buttressed by old-fashioned
inflation fears, but the real issue is that to do
so would admit loss of control by creditors over the
central bank. Actions parallel to those taken by the
Federal Reserve - nationalizing the entire commercial
paper market, for instance - would repel the ECB,
even though it does buy up sovereign bonds when it
has to. So instead the zone has gone about creating
a gigantic toxic CDO called the European Financial
Stability Fund, which may shortly be turned into an
even more gigantic toxic CDS (like AIG, they will
call it ''insurance''). This may defer panic at most
for a little while.
Technical solutions exist. The most-developed of these
is the ''Modest Proposal'' of Yanis Varoufakis and Stuart
Holland, widely backed by older political leaders
in Europe. It would 1) convert the first 60 percent
of GDP of every eurozone country's debt to a common
European bond, issued by the ECB; 2) recapitalize
and Europeanize the banking system, breaking the hammerlock
of national banks on national politicians; and 3)
fund a New Deal-like program of investment projects
through the European Investment Bank.
Variant proposals include Kunibert Raffer's call for
a sovereign insolvency regime modeled on the U.S.
municipal bankruptcy statute, Thomas Palley's proposal
for a new ''government banker'' and Jan Toporowski's
proposal for a tax on bank balance sheets to retire
excess public debt.
These are the best ideas and none of them will happen.
Europe's political classes exist these days in a vise
forged by desperate bankers and angry voters, no less
in Germany and France than in Greece or Italy. Discourse
is sealed off from fresh ideas and political survival
depends on kicking cans down roads so that the fact
that this is a banking crisis does not have to be
faced. The fate of the weak is at best incidental.
Thus every meeting of finance ministers and prime
ministers yields treacherous half-measures and legal
evasions.
The latest example was the pretzel-logic that declared
a 50 percent haircut on Greek debt to be ''voluntary''
so that it would not trigger default clauses on the
CDS to which some American banks, in particular, might
be exposed. When Timothy Geithner warned the Europeans
of potential ''catastrophe'' last month one may reasonably
infer he had this risk - and not the minor effect
on our already disastrous jobs picture - in mind.
But of course if the haircut can be declared voluntary,
then CDS are not worth the storage space they occupy
in bankers' computers, and another prop to the rapidly
failing market in sovereign debts falls to the ground.
Political fragility also explains the fury in France
and Germany when George Papandreou [the calmest man
in Europe, by the way, having been born and raised
in Minnesota] sought to cut the knot of his rebellious
ministers, irresponsible opposition and angry public
by putting the latest austerity package to a vote.
God help the bankers! The move was fatal to Papandreou
in short order, and Greece will now be turned over
to a junta of creditors' deputies if such can be found
willing to take the job. It won't be anyone who wants
to continue to live in Greece afterward.
Greece and Ireland are being destroyed. Portugal and
Spain are in limbo, and the crisis shifts to Italy
- truly too big to fail - which is being put into
an IMF-dictated receivership as I write. Meanwhile
France struggles to delay the (inevitable) downgrade
of its AAA rating by cutting every social and investment
program.
If there were an easy exit from the Euro, Greece would
be gone already. But Greece is not Argentina with
soybeans and oil for the Chinese market, and legally
exit from the Euro means leaving the European Union.
It's a choice only Germany can make. For the others,
the choice is between cancer and heart attack, barring
a transformation in Northern Europe that not even
Socialist victories in the next round of French and
German elections would bring.
So the cauldrons bubble. Debtor Europe is sliding
toward social breakdown, financial panic and ultimately
to emigration, once again, as the way out, for some.
Yet - and here is another difference with the United
States - people there have not entirely forgotten
how to fight back. Marches, demonstrations, strikes
and general strikes are on the rise. We are at the
point where political structures offer no hope, and
the baton stands to pass, quite soon, to the hand
of resistance. It may not be capable of much - but
we shall see.
James K. Galbraith organized a conference on the ''Crisis
in the Eurozone'' at the University of Texas at Austin
on November 3-4. Papers and presentations can be found
at http://tinyurl.com/3kut4k5,
along with a video archive of the full meeting.
November
11, 2011.
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