Ordered
by Congress on the basis of the Frank-Dodd financial
reform bill, the United Sates Federal Reserve recently
dumped on its website details of around 21,000 lending
transactions it undertook to deal with the crisis
that engulfed the financial system and threatened
a collapse comparable with the Great Depression. Through
multiple programmes referred to with confusing acronyms,
the Fed clearly launched a massive bailout. Besides
facilities that provided credit on an overnight basis,
the Fed implemented programmes such as: (i) the mortgage-backed
securities (MBS) programme under which MBS could be
exchanged for cash; (ii) the term auction facility
that provided 28-to-84 day credit to both US firms
and foreign entities with a US branch; and (iii) the
term asset-backed facility in which such assets can
be pledged for a loan. Though the fact that the Federal
Reserve intervened in the midst of the crisis and
provided cheap credit against worthless collateral
was known, this evidence is telling for a number of
reasons.
The first is the sheer size of the Fed’s intervention,
totalling $3,300 billion in the case of these transactions
or close to a quarter of US Gross Domestic Product
in 2009. The Fed had clearly stretched itself to ensure
that financial firms did not collapse because of lack
of liquidity to lend their way out of the crisis.
What is also important is that this lending was against
collateral that was worthless inasmuch as there was
no market for them. The Fed made the market and held
what could be worthless paper in return for a huge
volume of lending.
This lending was not just a source of liquidity for
cash-strapped financial firms unable to meet commitments
and carry on their business, but it cost them virtually
nothing. Ignoring the need to provide for a margin
to cover risk that would have been huge, the Federal
Reserve provided credit at near zero interest rates,
giving financial firms the option of making a profit
in any investment anywhere in the world that offered
a positive return. They in fact went and found investment
avenues that gave them significant yields, which allowed
them to record profits and pay out huge bonuses rather
quickly.
What is noteworthy, even if partly public knowledge,
is that though in principle the Federal Reserve is
responsible for providing liquidity to the banking
system it regulates, a large amount of emergency Fed
financing went to firms in the shadow banking system.
Investment banks like Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley
and even the failed Lehman borrowed from the Fed,
with Bear Stearns receiving as much as $28 billion
in March 2008. Even Goldman Sachs that had claimed
that it had navigated the crisis without government
support is reported to have turned to the Fed 84 times,
with daily borrowing having peaked at $24 billion.
What is more, the Federal Reserve was not just defending
US financial firms that were on the verge of failure
but a host of foreign entities that had been exposed
to toxic assets generated in the US and were therefore
likely to fail taking their trading partners down
with them. Barclays and the Royal Bank of Scotland
from UK, UBS from Switzerland, Dexia from Belgium
and a host of other European banks had been bailed
out with Federal Reserve funding. Saving the US financial
system seems to have required saving foreign firms
entangled with that system.
When put together, this evidence reveals a story that
perhaps bears telling, even if it is speculative.
The most obvious element of the story is that though
the financial crisis was known to have been big, the
scale of the rescue effort made by the Fed indicates
that the magnitudes involved were much larger than
most had estimated. TARP or the troubled asset relief
programme that was seen as huge was expected to cost
the exchequer just $700 billion, as compared with
the $3300 billion outlaid here. This possibly explains
why the Fed had to take on this responsibility. Operating
through Federal Reserve emergency lending allows the
system to bypass Congressional scrutiny, which was
crucial given the opposition from sections of Congress
even to the much smaller TARP experienced. Thus the
Wall Street-Treasury nexus that crafted the rescue
seems to have consciously chosen the Federal Reserve
as the main fire-fighting agent rather than other
government bodies.
That the Fed’s role was consciously planned is suggested
by the fact that its involvement seems to have begun
well before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September
2008. Even in 2007 the Fed had begun to pump liquidity
into the system including lending to non-US borrowers.
Yet, as financial analyst and University of San Diego
Professor of Law Frank Partnoy notes (Financial Times,
December 3, 2010): ''Fed officials claimed they did
not know of the need for large-scale intervention
in financial markets until autumn 2008.'' While much
bargaining about the rescue effort was going on in
the Treasury, a lightly monitored Federal Reserve
had already been put on the job.
The need to bypass scrutiny arose not only because
of the scale and reach of the rescue effort that was
necessary. It was also because the bail-out required
ignoring risk when taking on collateral and pricing
loans. As noted earlier, much of the massive lending
provided by the Fed was against collateral that seemed
worthless at the time the loans were provided, that
too at interest rates that did not price for the risks
involved. The gambit paid off because the liquidity
was used by the financial firms concerned to invest
their way to profits. But that outcome was not assured
and the Fed was taking risks with ''public'' money that
may not have been acceptable if subjected to scrutiny.
It is true that the Fed having got back its interest
and capital in most cases has not suffered explicit
losses. But there is an implicit loss involved inasmuch
as the returns for the kind of risks taken, if they
had to be taken at all, were low or even non-existent.
This implicit loss is the subsidy paid out to save
financial firms that had speculated their way to near-insolvency.
That the Fed could be used in this fashion makes nonsense
of the theory that the Federal Reserve and central
banks generally can be independent and impeccable
managers of money and finance.
The use of the Fed to bypass scrutiny and finance
a huge bail-out of irresponsible and often manipulative
financial firms is inviting criticism also because
not enough has been done to restore the real economy
to health and support those who have had to bear the
consequences of the unemployment resulting from the
recession induced by the financial crisis. On the
other hand Wall Street firms and some of the banks
are back in the times of good profits and fat bonuses.
The Fed’s data dump has, therefore, revived the view
that Main Street has had to pay the price for Wall
Street’s misbehaviour, but the government has bailed
out the latter while the former still remains in crisis.
Adding insult to injury is the evidence that the bail
out of Wall Street extends beyond borders, involving
large sums of cheap credit against doubtful collateral
to even foreign firms. The Fed was an instrument to
help not just US firms but global finance capital
consisting of a set of networked and financially entangled
firms which function as a single supranational entity,
even though they may be registered and headquartered
in different nations. Being the central bank of the
country that is home to the world’s reserve currency
in the age of finance, the Federal Reserve is playing
the role of being the lender of last resort not just
to banks but financial firms generally, and not just
to US financial firms but even those non-US firms
which are part of the financial network that US firms
dominate. The Federal Reserve is no more just an economic
arm of the US state but the handmaiden of global finance.
All this leads to conclusion that we live in a world
that is overwhelmed by moral hazard. Given the evidence
at hand it is difficult to believe that any financial
firm with even a minimum of systemic significance
would be allowed to fail. This would incentivise speculative
behaviour and could encourage action of a kind that
would make even the speculative frenzy which preceded
the 2008 crisis seem a minor aberration. This is why
major reregulation of financial markets, institutions
and instruments of different kinds is imperative.
But that does not seem to be on the agenda. The victory
of finance implies that even operationalisation of
the small gains that the Frank-Dodd Bill promises
to deliver would be a bonus for the rest of society.
December
22, 2010.
|