Ordered by Congress on the basis of
the Frank-Dodd financial reform bill, the United Sates Federal Reserve
recently dumped on its website details of around 21,000 lending transactions
it undertook to deal with the crisis that engulfed the financial system
and threatened a collapse comparable with the Great Depression. Through
multiple programmes referred to with confusing acronyms, the Fed clearly
launched a massive bailout. Besides facilities that provided credit on
an overnight basis, the Fed implemented programmes such as: (i) the mortgage-backed
securities (MBS) programme under which MBS could be exchanged for cash;
(ii) the term auction facility that provided 28-to-84 day credit to both
US firms and foreign entities with a US branch; and (iii) the term asset-backed
facility in which such assets can be pledged for a loan. Though the fact
that the Federal Reserve intervened in the midst of the crisis and provided
cheap credit against worthless collateral was known, this evidence is
telling for a number of reasons.
The first is the sheer size of the Fed’s intervention, totalling $3,300
billion in the case of these transactions or close to a quarter of US
Gross Domestic Product in 2009. The Fed had clearly stretched itself to
ensure that financial firms did not collapse because of lack of liquidity
to lend their way out of the crisis. What is also important is that this
lending was against collateral that was worthless inasmuch as there was
no market for them. The Fed made the market and held what could be worthless
paper in return for a huge volume of lending.
This lending was not just a source of liquidity for cash-strapped financial
firms unable to meet commitments and carry on their business, but it cost
them virtually nothing. Ignoring the need to provide for a margin to cover
risk that would have been huge, the Federal Reserve provided credit at
near zero interest rates, giving financial firms the option of making
a profit in any investment anywhere in the world that offered a positive
return. They in fact went and found investment avenues that gave them
significant yields, which allowed them to record profits and pay out huge
bonuses rather quickly.
What is noteworthy, even if partly public knowledge, is that though in
principle the Federal Reserve is responsible for providing liquidity to
the banking system it regulates, a large amount of emergency Fed financing
went to firms in the shadow banking system. Investment banks like Bear
Stearns, Morgan Stanley and even the failed Lehman borrowed from the Fed,
with Bear Stearns receiving as much as $28 billion in March 2008. Even
Goldman Sachs that had claimed that it had navigated the crisis without
government support is reported to have turned to the Fed 84 times, with
daily borrowing having peaked at $24 billion.
What is more, the Federal Reserve was not just defending US financial
firms that were on the verge of failure but a host of foreign entities
that had been exposed to toxic assets generated in the US and were therefore
likely to fail taking their trading partners down with them. Barclays
and the Royal Bank of Scotland from UK, UBS from Switzerland, Dexia from
Belgium and a host of other European banks had been bailed out with Federal
Reserve funding. Saving the US financial system seems to have required
saving foreign firms entangled with that system.
When put together, this evidence reveals a story that perhaps bears telling,
even if it is speculative. The most obvious element of the story is that
though the financial crisis was known to have been big, the scale of the
rescue effort made by the Fed indicates that the magnitudes involved were
much larger than most had estimated. TARP or the troubled asset relief
programme that was seen as huge was expected to cost the exchequer just
$700 billion, as compared with the $3300 billion outlaid here. This possibly
explains why the Fed had to take on this responsibility. Operating through
Federal Reserve emergency lending allows the system to bypass Congressional
scrutiny, which was crucial given the opposition from sections of Congress
even to the much smaller TARP experienced. Thus the Wall Street-Treasury
nexus that crafted the rescue seems to have consciously chosen the Federal
Reserve as the main fire-fighting agent rather than other government bodies.
That the Fed’s role was consciously planned is suggested by the fact that
its involvement seems to have begun well before the collapse of Lehman
Brothers in September 2008. Even in 2007 the Fed had begun to pump liquidity
into the system including lending to non-US borrowers. Yet, as financial
analyst and University of San Diego Professor of Law Frank Partnoy notes
(Financial Times, December 3, 2010): ''Fed officials claimed they did
not know of the need for large-scale intervention in financial markets
until autumn 2008.'' While much bargaining about the rescue effort was
going on in the Treasury, a lightly monitored Federal Reserve had already
been put on the job.
The need to bypass scrutiny arose not only because of the scale and reach
of the rescue effort that was necessary. It was also because the bail-out
required ignoring risk when taking on collateral and pricing loans. As
noted earlier, much of the massive lending provided by the Fed was against
collateral that seemed worthless at the time the loans were provided,
that too at interest rates that did not price for the risks involved.
The gambit paid off because the liquidity was used by the financial firms
concerned to invest their way to profits. But that outcome was not assured
and the Fed was taking risks with ''public'' money that may not have been
acceptable if subjected to scrutiny. It is true that the Fed having got
back its interest and capital in most cases has not suffered explicit
losses. But there is an implicit loss involved inasmuch as the returns
for the kind of risks taken, if they had to be taken at all, were low
or even non-existent. This implicit loss is the subsidy paid out to save
financial firms that had speculated their way to near-insolvency. That
the Fed could be used in this fashion makes nonsense of the theory that
the Federal Reserve and central banks generally can be independent and
impeccable managers of money and finance.
The use of the Fed to bypass scrutiny and finance a huge bail-out of irresponsible
and often manipulative financial firms is inviting criticism also because
not enough has been done to restore the real economy to health and support
those who have had to bear the consequences of the unemployment resulting
from the recession induced by the financial crisis. On the other hand
Wall Street firms and some of the banks are back in the times of good
profits and fat bonuses. The Fed’s data dump has, therefore, revived the
view that Main Street has had to pay the price for Wall Street’s misbehaviour,
but the government has bailed out the latter while the former still remains
in crisis.
Adding insult to injury is the evidence that the bail out of Wall Street
extends beyond borders, involving large sums of cheap credit against doubtful
collateral to even foreign firms. The Fed was an instrument to help not
just US firms but global finance capital consisting of a set of networked
and financially entangled firms which function as a single supranational
entity, even though they may be registered and headquartered in different
nations. Being the central bank of the country that is home to the world’s
reserve currency in the age of finance, the Federal Reserve is playing
the role of being the lender of last resort not just to banks but financial
firms generally, and not just to US financial firms but even those non-US
firms which are part of the financial network that US firms dominate.
The Federal Reserve is no more just an economic arm of the US state but
the handmaiden of global finance.
All this leads to conclusion that we live in a world that is overwhelmed
by moral hazard. Given the evidence at hand it is difficult to believe
that any financial firm with even a minimum of systemic significance would
be allowed to fail. This would incentivise speculative behaviour and could
encourage action of a kind that would make even the speculative frenzy
which preceded the 2008 crisis seem a minor aberration. This is why major
reregulation of financial markets, institutions and instruments of different
kinds is imperative. But that does not seem to be on the agenda. The victory
of finance implies that even operationalisation of the small gains that
the Frank-Dodd Bill promises to deliver would be a bonus for the rest
of society.
December
22, 2010.
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