A severe blow to active Keynesian policy
intervention occurred as a result of the
New Classical resurgence in macroeconomics.
With a vertical aggregate supply curve
in the short and the long runs (New Classicals)
or at least in the long run (New Keynesians),
it has been argued that the economy settles
down at a unique non-accelerating inflation
rate of unemployment (NAIRU) without any
government intervention. Implicit in the
NAIRU theory is that the prices can decrease
just as they can increase. However, if
the prices cannot decrease, the aggregate
supply curve would be an inverse-L shaped
curve, both in the short and the long
runs. Furthermore, with globalization,
the expectations-augmented Phillips curve
becomes horizontal because of an absolute
decline in the bargaining power of the
working class in the advanced countries.
This means that not only would the economy
settle at less than 'full employment',
but the only way it could be brought closer
to that is through active policy intervention.
In the present case, manoeuvrability of
fiscal policy increases since the threat
of accelerating inflation
practically disappears.
September
19, 2012. |