Exactly
one year ago, the Wall Street investment bank Lehmann
Brothers was allowed to go bust, in a move that is
generally seen to have brought on the global financial
crisis. Shock waves hit the financial markets; stock
markets collapsed in waves of contagion across the
world; credit seized up in most developed and many
developing economies; and for a while it really did
seem that global capitalism was facing direct threats
to its very survival.
The collapse was not entirely unexpected. The implosion
of the US housing market over the past year had already
exposed the massive fragilities in the global financial
system, with institutions interlocked in such opaque
ways that the full extent of liability was not known
even to the most experienced players. In consequence,
the summer of 2008 had already witnessed the US Federal
Reserve bailing out several major financial institutions,
beginning with providing a dowry for the failing bank
Bear Stearns in its shotgun marriage with JP Morgan,
and then going on to protect and then effectively
nationalise the mortgage holding agencies Freddie
Mac and Fannie Mae. It was well known that many major
investment banks and other financial institutions
(such as the insurance giant AIG) were all extremely
vulnerable, and short-selling by those betting against
such institutions only hastened the likely denouement.
After the Lehmann Brothers debacle, the US government,
and indeed other governments in Europe and elsewhere,
swung into action on an unprecedented scale to prevent
what seemed like a possible financial and economic
catastrophe of global dimensions. Monetary policy
was loosened to the absolute limit and fiscal stimuli
were introduced to maintain spending. Most of all,
there were more bailouts: huge injections of liquidity
that directly and indirectly benefited certain big
financial players who were seen as integral to the
functioning of the system.
On year on, it can be said that that particular crisis
was averted. The world economy went into recession,
but did not collapse altogether. Today there is talk
of recovery everywhere, even in currently recessionary
Europe and certainly in the US. So was the emergency
response successful? And have policy makers learned
the important lessons from the crisis?
Unfortunately, this does not seem to be the case.
Most significantly, hardly anything seems to have
been learned in terms of required regulation of finance.
Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, there
has been no moving away from the ''efficient markets''
hypothesis that determined the hands-off approach
of governments to the financial sector. Financial
institutions have been bailed out at enormous public
expense, but without changes in regulation that would
discourage irresponsible behaviour. Banks that were
''too big to fail'' have been allowed to get bigger.
Flawed incentive structures continue to promote short-term
profit-seeking rather than social good. So we have
protected private profiteering and socialised its
risks.
One of the worst consequences of this flawed manner
of dealing with the crisis is that moral hazard is
now more pronounced than ever. The Palgrave Dictionary
of Economics defines moral hazard as ''actions of economic
agents in maximising their own utility to the detriment
of others, in situations where they do not bear the
full consequences''. In financial markets, these problems
are especially rife because such markets are anyway
characterised by imperfect and asymmetric information
among those participating in the markets.
The moral hazard associated with any financial bailout
results from the fact that a bailout implicitly condones
the earlier behaviour that led to the crisis of a
particular institution. Typically, markets are supposed
to reward ''good'' behaviour and punish those participants
who get it wrong. And presumably those who believe
in ''free market principles'' and in the unfettered
operations of the markets should also believe in its
disciplining powers.
But when the crisis hits, the shouts for bailout and
immediate rescue by the state usually come loudest
from precisely those who had earlier championed deregulation
and freedom from all restriction for the markets.
The arguments for bailout are related either to the
domino effect - the possibility of the failure of
a particular institution leading to a general crisis
of confidence attacking the entire financial system
and rendering it unviable - or to the perception that
some institutions are too large and too deeply entrenched
in the financial structure, such that too many innocent
people, such as small depositors, pensioners and the
like, would be adversely affected.
The problem is that this leads to both signals and
actual incentives actually encouraging further irresponsible
behaviour. Both financial markets and government policies
have operated in such a way that those running the
institutions that might or do collapse typically walk
off from the debris of the crisis not only without
paying any price, but after substantially enriching
themselves further. Because those responsible for
the crisis do not have to pay for it, they have no
compunctions in once again creating the same conditions.
This is why these enormous bailouts should have been
accompanied by much more systematic and aggressive
attempts at financial regulation, to ensure that the
same patterns that led to this crisis are not repeated.
Similarly, there must be regulation to prevent speculative
behaviour in global commodity markets, which can otherwise
still cause a repeat of the recent crazy volatility
in world fuel and food prices that created so much
havoc in the developing world.
This opportunity wasted by governments – reflecting
the lack of basic change in the power equations governing
capitalism – will prove to be expensive. We should
brace ourselves for an even worse replay of the financial
crisis in the foreseeable future. And the lopsided
government response – benefiting those responsible
for the crisis without adequate concern for the collateral
damage on innocent citizens – may give public intervention
a bad name, at a time when we desperately need such
intervention for more democratic and sustainable economies.
September
16 , 2009.
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