When the leaders of the G20 met in Cannes in early
November, the global economy was clearly on the threshold
of, if not already well into, another major financial
crisis. The need for action - fast, co-ordinated and
effective - was more evident than ever since early
2009. Back then, the G20 did rise to the challenge
by pledging reflationary policies all over the world.
Today's challenges, however, are probably greater,
and one of the reasons is that the action taken in
2009 was inadequate. The global imbalances that were
at the root of the crisis in 2008/09 were never adequately
addressed. Worst of all, financial institutions were
bailed out without sufficient regulation to stem their
irresponsible behaviour. The result is a new banking
crisis, which even the financial media misleadingly
present as a sovereign debt crisis. This time, Europe
is the epicentre.
Events in the eurozone cast major shadows over the
G20 discussions, at times threatening to derail it
entirely. The final declaration contains a lot of
pious promises, but very little to back them up in
terms of more money, new regulation or policy changes.
The diplomatic wording does not really paper over
the fundamental disagreement that characterised the
meeting and is likely to become a feature of the world
economy.
Desperate European leaders sought to persuade China,
Brazil, Russia and other large holders of for-ex reserves
to commit money for a proposed (and highly leveraged)
European Financial Stability Facility to help eurozone
countries under stress. The leaders of the emerging
market nations, however, correctly pointed out that
it would be hard to explain to their mostly much poorer
peoples why they should pour money into a pot for
rich nations that can afford to save themselves. They
wanted to know why eurozone nations with balance of
payments surpluses, such as Germany, the Netherlands
or Finland, were not more willing to put more money
where mouths were in order to save their own monetary
union.
Soon after the summit, China and India issued a remarkable
joint statement, noting that western countries need
to ''adopt responsible macroeconomic policies to handle
the issues of debt and financial stability properly''.
This was a new and rather hectoring tone. Nonetheless,
the statement was still rather vague. And some of
the arguments India and China made in Cannes were
not helpful either.
India fought against a Financial Transactions Tax
that could pay globally for some important social
expenditure. China criticised lazy and decrepit habits
of advanced countries that cannot not pay for their
own spending, blatantly ignoring that those very habits
are the source of its own trade surplus. For similar
reasons, Germany's insistence on austerity is self-defeating
too. German exports have been boosted by deficit spending
in the public and private sectors elsewhere.
It was remarkable that European leaders clearly put
finance over democracy in their own continent. Developing
countries, which have lived through the consequences
of such choices with mostly unhappy outcomes over
several decades, now see these policies being imposed
in the west. Greek's Prime Minister George Papandreou
was forced out of office after a humiliating rejection
by EU bosses of his (admittedly belated) plan to put
the austerity measures to a popular referendum. Italy's
Silvio Berlusconi - who should have been ousted much
earlier - was similarly ejected not by a democratic
vote, but by pressure from the financial markets.
In both countries, ''technocratic'' governments are
now supposed to implement harsh measures, regardless
of popular response.
The summit was a missed opportunity. The world needs
a clear macroeconomic strategy for recovery, which
would allow deficit countries to grow their way out
of debt rather than get caught in austerity-induced
downward spirals. Rather than finally rising to the
challenge of properly regulating and restructuring
the financial sector, the G20 leaders proved to be
its servants. Shadow banking, derivatives and commodity
speculation are still likely to reap havoc. The world
economy is going to pay dearly for the failures of
Cannes, perhaps sooner than we realise now.
*
This article was originally published in the D and
C, November 16, 2011.
November
18, 2011.
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