To
the superstitious, recent developments in global financial
markets were possible reminders that the Ides of March
had arrived. To the more rational, they proved once
again that finance capital, which pillories the state
when it steps into the economic arena, finally uses
it as a means of accumulation and leans on it in times
of crisis.
On March 14, Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment
bank in the United States with an 85-year history,
was put on life support with what appears to be an
unlimited loan facility for 28 days delivered through
Wall Street Bank J.P. Morgan Chase. The need for life
support came when it is became clear that, faced with
a liquidity crunch, Bear Stearns would have to unwind
its assets by selling them at prices that would imply
huge losses. This would have had spin off effects
on other financial firms since the investment bank
had multiple points of interaction with the rest of
the financial community. Besides being a counterpart
to a range of transactions that would turn questionable,
its efforts to liquidate its assets would affect other
investors holding the same or related securities and
derivatives through a price decline. Fearing that
the ripple effects would lead to a systemic collapse,
the Fed, in collaboration with JP Morgan, sought to
prop up the investment bank. The Financial Times quotes
an unnamed official who reportedly declared that Bear
Stearns was too "interconnected" to be allowed
to fail at a time when financial markets are extremely
fragile. According to insiders, in addition to the
loans extended to Bear Stearns, the Fed has agreed
to fund up to $30 billion of its less liquid assets,
so as to prevent a distress sale of mortgage-backed
securities.
The Fed's support was clearly driven by two objectives.
The first was to keep Bear Stearns afloat so that
its liquidation would not trigger a financial collapse.
The second was to restore the firm to a condition
where it could find an appropriate suitor willing
to take it over. In fact, speculation was rife that
with JP Morgan being chosen as the conduit to deliver
funds to Bear Stearns, it would be in a privileged
position to take over the firm at an appropriate time.
That time arrived in two days. Clearly JP Morgan was
convinced that the support being offered was good
enough to help revive the enterprise from its pathetic
position. And a takeover when the firm is going through
a crisis and shareholders are looking to exit promises
a better bargain than when its health has been restored.
Thus, in a deal negotiated over a weekend and clinched
on a Sunday, JP Morgan agreed to buy Bear Stearns
for $236 million in shares, or at a price of $2 a
share. The deal took Wall Street and the financial
community by surprise, not just because of the speed
with which it was executed. Rather, what was stunning
was the price - a 93 per cent discount on the price
at which it was being quoted at closing on the immediately
preceding Friday and way below the $169 at which the
shares were being traded just over a year ago. Further,
the deal gave JP Morgan ownership of Bear's headquarters
in Manhattan's Madison Avenue—a piece of real estate
valued at $1.2 billion. The Fed's move had provided
the basis for a deal that would put prices quoted
in bargain basements to shame.
The import of the Fed's decision to support Bear Stearns
needs noting. The philosophy that rules financial
markets and financial policy today is that bail-outs
by the government of institutions that are weakened
by wrong financial decisions are inimical to the proper
functioning of markets in the long run. Such bail-outs
are expected to result in moral hazard problems, or
the tendency for agents protected against risk to
behave recklessly, that destroy markets. Moreover,
they are seen as legitimising interventionism, which
then that leads to distortions and financial repression
that increases market inefficiency. Indeed, the very
financial liberalisation that created the problems
epitomised by the sub-prime crisis was predicated
on a critique of the efficacy and correctness of intervention
by the state. The "problem" that liberalisation
was directed to "solve" could not itself
become the solution to the problems that liberalisation
creates.
Further, even those who see in the Federal Reserve
and similar institutions a lender of last resort which
must step in when liquidity dries up and threatens
financial failure, see this role as relevant only
to the commercial banking sector, which takes deposits
insured by the deposit insurance corporation. Even
that was a responsibility that was linked to rights
to regulate the commercial banking system. The responsibility
of ensuring liquidity to unregulated or lightly regulated
merchant banks and other such segments of the financial
system does not conventionally rest with the central
bank. In the circumstances, the Federal Reserve had
to adopt the unusual route of routing its support
through J P Morgan—a commercial bank—in a back to
back transaction that promises the bank the liquidity
needed to service demands from Bear Stearns. According
to a statement from JP Morgan: "Through its discount
window, the Fed will provide non-recourse, back-to-back
financing to JPMorgan Chase. Accordingly, JPMorgan
Chase does not believe this transaction exposes its
shareholders to any material risk."
According to one report, the Fed claims that it was
acting under section 13.3 of the Federal Reserve Act,
which gives it authority to lend to any individual,
partnership or corporation "in unusual and exigent
circumstances". But that authority has not been
invoked since the 1960s and loans under that regime
were actually disbursed only during the Depression
in the 1930s.
As opposed to liquidity problems that could afflict
a conventional bank, Bear Stearns' predicament was
the result of wrong decisions encouraged by a liberal
or lightly regulated and ostensibly "innovative"
financial framework. Though successful in the past,
it was a highly leveraged institution holding assets
valued at $395.4 billion in November 2007 on an equity
base of just $11.8 billion. Bear was also heavily
exposed to the "lucrative" sub-prime loan
market that has been on the decline since the middle
of last year. Eight months earlier the bank had declared
that investments in one of its hedge funds set up
to invest in mortgage backed securities had lost all
its value and those in a second such fund were valued
at nine cents for every dollar of original investment.
Since then, the bank's exposure to the mortgage market
has been shown to be substantial. The resulting losses
were huge and creditors were unwilling to keep providing
the finance to back investments that were dwindling
in value. The bank broke when hedge fund Carlyle Capital
Corporation, to which it was heavily exposed, went
bankrupt. So would Bear Stearns have, if the Fed had
not stepped in with its life support arrangements.
But this use of the state to rescue a mismanaged financial
enterprise (or system) does not begin or end with
Bear Stearns. The problems the latter faced eight
months back were a strong indicator of a sub-prime-led
crisis that had burgeoned because of financial greed,
poor and faulty financial practices and weak regulation.
What soon became clear was that the potential for
crisis in the mortgage market was huge, and the direct
and indirect exposure of leading financial firms to
that market was widespread both in terms of institutions
and geography. The entangled financial system that
liberalisation, securitisation and structured products
of various kinds had generated had put a wide variety
of institutions in the net. Since the base problem
was massive the consequences could be devastating.
The response was a decision across the world, but
especially in the US and the UK, for the state to
step in, stall a crisis and restore normalcy at the
expense of the tax payer if necessary. This whole
strategy is based on the idea that if financial institutions
have enough liquidity at relatively low costs to meet
their needs and do not have to unwind their assets
at declining prices the problem would in time go away.
The net result is huge cuts in interest rates and
efforts to beef up liquidity in the system. What the
Bear Stearns experience indicates is that the Fed
is willing to reach that liquidity 'almost' directly
to unregulated institutions other than commercial
banks.
The problem these institutions faced was that the
short term financing they obtained from the market
was in exchange for the assets or securities they
held, temporarily sold only to be repurchased later.
But with the value of these securities declining,
banks providing such loans were asking for larger
discounts or more collateral or in fact were unwilling
to lend against certain kinds of securities. Just
days before the near-collapse of Bear Stearns the
Fed had announced a facility under which it would
lend primary dealers in the bond market $200billion
in Treasury securities for a month at a time and accept
ordinary triple-A rated mortgage-backed securities
as collateral in return. That is, the Fed was swapping
good paper for paper which everybody believes was
wrongly rate and is as good as junk. The dealers themselves
could then use the Treasury securities to borrow from
the market. Unfortunately for Bear Stearns, this rescue
attempt came too late for it to exercise the option.
But it is still unclear that this effort by the Fed
to break all rules and take on junk created by a malfunctioning
financial system would solve the problem. It leaves
the base problem of a mortgage crisis reflected in
rising defaults unresolved. That makes the assets
sitting in the books of many financial institutions
worthless. The issue is not just one of illiquidity
but of insolvency.
But there is reason to believe that if easy and cheap
liquidity, which allows financial firms to access
cheap short term funds to finance higher return medium
or long term investments, does not help neutralise
other losses, the state would step in to restructure
the capital of these institutions at taxpayers' expense.
This was what was done during the savings and loan
crisis in the US. And this seems to be what was done
in the case of Northern Rock in the UK.
Northern Rock, the fifth largest mortgage lender in
the UK was also trapped in rising mortgage defaults,
and had to be rescued by the Bank of England with
access to liquidity against collateral in the form
of mortgages or mortgage backed securities. Sensing
failure, depositors queued up to withdraw their savings
necessitating rapid increases in lending to the institution.
When it was clear that it was insolvency that threatened
Northern Rock, the Bank of England and the Chancellor
tried to find a suitor who would buy into the bank.
For that purpose it declared that it was willing to
convert the £25 billion ($49 billion) Bank of
England debt it had incurred into bonds that would
be backed by a government guarantee so that they could
be sold to investors. The issue was how long the government
would have to guarantee the bonds, what would be the
fee that would be paid to the government as guarantor
and what would be the equity stake the government
would get to make a profit from equity appreciation
when viability is restored. Three private bidders
who expressed an interest in the deal were looking
for a major sop from the government that would guarantee
them huge profits. When that was not forthcoming,
all but one (Richard Branson's Virgin Group) withdrew,
and the last was holding out for a bargain. In the
end the government had to nationalise the bank rather
than subsidise the private player to earn the profit
that the government helps generate.
Nationalisation of course implies that the institution
is being restructured with taxpayer funds that would
be recouped, if at all, only in the medium term. How
much private shareholders, include major funds, should
be compensated for what is a worthless enterprise
without government guarantees is being debated. Finance
capital seeks every means possible to accumulate at
the expense of the state, even in the midst of a crisis
it has created. Meanwhile, arguments from Northern
Rock's private competitors that government support
makes the playing field unequal, are being used to
limit the lender's activities. This could mean that
the tax payers' money would not be recouped.
Martin Wolf, the conservative
columnist for the Financial Times (February 17, 2008)
has to his credit supported nationalization and opposed
compensating shareholders. But he has a rather intriguing
suggestion as to where the government should go from
here: "The bank should be nationalised and then
closed for new mortgage business. That is the only
way to ensure that its continued existence does not
distort the mortgage market as a whole. It would be
the least bad end to this depressing saga." But
what about recouping the financing provided by the
government to cover loans from the central bank? The
government must wait, he says. Even if the loan book
is run down, "When the financial markets recover,
it should be possible to sell the residual loan book.
Provided its quality is as good as the auditors and
the Financial Services Authority have suggested, the
government should get back all the money it has lent
the bank." In sum: let the state we pillory carry
and pass the burden of preventing a financial collapse
to the tax payer for the present, and hope the markets
would compensate it for its good work in due time.
March
19, 2008.
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