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Shaking
Up Development Finance in Latin America |
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It
took a while to get formalised, and even now there
are several hurdles to be crossed before it becomes
operational. Nevertheless, the signing of the agreement
on December 9, 2007 in Buenos Aires, to create the
Banco del Sur is a very welcome sign that the complacent
world of development finance run by the Bretton Woods
lending institutions is about to get some much-needed
shocks.
The Banco del Sur is a pet project of the President
of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, who has seen it as an important
means of reducing the influence of the IMF and World
Bank in imposing neo-liberal economic policies with
adverse consequences upon developing countries. While
it has global aspirations, the current focus is on
Latin America, where it is also seen as part of the
moves towards greater regional integration and reduced
dependence upon the United States.
The seven countries that signed the agreement in early
December were Venezuela, Bolivia, Argentina, Ecuador,
Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. (The surprise new entrant,
Colombia, whose leader is a close ally of the US,
asked to join but later pulled out, presumably under
US pressure.) While these countries have divergent
interests and aspirations with respect to the Bank,
the move reflects a general disillusionment with the
role of the IFIs in the region. These include not
only the IMF and the World Bank, but also the Inter-American
Development Bank (IDB), which has some participation
from Latin American countries but is dominated by
the US. It has generally adopted the same approach
and policies as its larger counterparts.
It is general knowledge that the IFIs’ record in the
region is less than admirable. In the 1980s, when
the external debt crisis forced several large debtor
countries in Latin America to turn to the IMF, it
imposed severe and misplaced monetarist adjustment
policies that led to the dramatic fall of incomes
and growth potential, such that the period became
known as a “lost decade” for the region. In the 1990s,
the IFIs encouraged very rigid macroeconomic policies
as well as policies of privatization with inadequate
regulation that worsened already very unequal income
distribution and damaged possibilities of increasing
aggregate productivity.
The crisis management record is also abysmal. Mexico
in 1995 and Argentina in 2001, for example, both suffered
more as a result of the wrong policies imposed upon
them by the IFIs. And the World Bank has routinely
pushed market-based and private solutions in areas
such as education and health, even when the consequent
problems are all too well-known.
The extraordinary thing is that the IFIs appear to
have learned very little from their past mistakes.
Nor do they seem to recognise that they deserve to
have very little say in determining policies, given
how little they have actually contributed to development
finance in recent years, not only in Latin America
but in the developing world as a whole.
Indeed, in the Latin American region the changing
nature of international capital markets has meant
that the IFIs - and official finance generally – have
been not just minor but actually negative net contributors
to resources for development. Chart 1 shows how net
financial flows to the Latin American and Caribbean
region have been dominated by private equity flows
(and within that, incidentally, by FDI rather than
portfolio flows).
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It is also evident from Chart 1 that net official debt
flows have been quite volatile, negative in many years
(and clearly so from 2004 onwards) and therefore hardly
contributed to development finance. Until 2004 they
also appeared to follow the debt cycle established by
private creditors, which is surely the opposite of what
was required or could be expected.
Within official finance flows, the role of the IFIs
has been even less positive. Chart 2 shows that net
finance flows from the IMF to the region as a whole
have fluctuated wildly but generally been negative.
In fact, the only three years when it was positive reflected
the impact of the large bailouts provided to Argentina
during its major financial crisis and IFI-guided economic
implosion. For most of the recent period, the IMF has
been a large recipient of repayment flows from countries
in the region, receiving net inflows to the tune of
tens of billions of dollars every year.
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Of course, it could be argued that the IMF’s mandate
is to lend to countries in distress, and therefore it
may even be a good sign that it is not engaged in net
lending to the region. The same argument does not hold
for the World Bank, which is supposed to be the basic
source of development finance. The net amounts provided
by the World Bank to the region since the late 1990s
have been paltry, and since 2002 they have been negative
as well. Even the IDB - the other large multilateral
creditor – has been receiving net inflows from the region
The only consistently positive – albeit relatively small
– source of net finance has come from bilateral aid
– and in recent years this has been dominated by intra-regional
assistance, as oil-rich countries like Venezuela have
provided finance for smaller countries. It provided
around $2.5 billion to help Argentina repay its IMF
loan early, and is currently offering $500 million to
reduce the debt crunch in Ecuador and $1.5 billion to
stabilise the economic situation in Bolivia.
The Banco del Sur would institutionalise such ad hoc
arrangements and lending. The plan is to raise $7 billion
in paid-in capital from member countries. So far, Venezuela
has offered to put in $1.4 billion and Argentina $350
million (or 10 per cent of its reserves). However, government
financing alone will not be sufficient. To become a
real alternative to the IFIs, the Banco del Sur would
have to leverage this capital to raise funds from the
market and lend out to borrower countries. That in turn
will require the ability to access capital markets as
a preferred borrower so as to keep interest rates low
for its own borrowers.
Despite the sceptics, there is no question that this
is a very favourable time for such an initiative, given
the resources within the region that could be tapped.
Chart 3 provides some idea of this. Since 2003, the
aggregate current account balance of the region has
moved from deficit to surplus. Official foreign exchange
reserves have also been growing rapidly, and currently
more than $200 billion of such reserves are invested
outside the region. More significantly, the “balancing
item” of the balance of payments data, which includes
not only errors and omissions (a proxy for private capital
flight) but also net acquisition of foreign assets including
outward FDI, has been increasing by substantial amounts
every year.
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Of course, much remains to be sorted out before the
Banco del Sur can become operational, including questions
like the governance structure, lending framework, membership
criteria, the type of loan guarantees expected, the
appointment of senior managers, and safeguard policies.
The member countries are reported to have different
objectives as well. Venezuela and Bolivia see it as
an alternative to the IMF, which would also provide
balance of payments financing. Brazil envisages a more
limited role for the Bank, of servicing the infrastructure
investment needs of an expanded Mercosur. Several of
the smaller countries probably just want an alternative
source of development finance that will be less bureaucratic
and more sensitive to local needs than the Washington-based
IFIs.
Ultimately, the creation of the Banco del Sur is part
of a broader trend within Latin America of governments
increasingly distancing themselves from the IFIs that
are widely perceived as too biased in favour of US interests
and too insistent on providing rigid and undesirable
policy advice. Such a distancing is of course further
bad news for the IFIs, since they are now themselves
facing financial problems because of a cutback in their
lending operations!
But it is also bad news for the US, whose sphere of
influence will be considerably undermined by such moves.
In addition, if Latin American governments also start
to move their reserves out of US dollar holdings, which
will add to the pressure on the dollar and to US interest
rates, perhaps intensifying the credit crunch that is
already under way.
Therefore, we should expect a backlash and counter-moves
to this initiative quite soon, both from the US administration
and from international financial circles. But if this
plan succeeds even partially, it is an important source
of hope for the rest of the developing world. And meanwhile
it will also be interesting to see if this competition
in development finance forces the Bretton Woods institutions
out of their complacency, to try to reinvent themselves
so that they can actually contribute usefully to the
development of the South.
January 2, 2008. |
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