It
speaks volumes for the nature of capitalism that a
slim little book first written more than half a century
ago can still seem so fresh and relevant. John Kenneth
Galbraith's wise and delightfully written tract ''A
Short History of Financial Euphoria'' has just been
reissued by Penguin Books, but one variant of it has
been almost continuously in print since it was first
published to mark the twenty-fifth anniversary of
the Great Depression.
As Galbraith himself charmingly notes in his Preface
to the 1993 edition, every time the book was about
to pass out of print, some new speculative episode
or disaster would renew public demand for it. ''Over
a lifetime I have been, in a modest way, a steady
beneficiary of the speculative aberration in its association
with more than occasional insanity. Only a stalwart
character keeps me from welcoming these events as
proof of personal prescience and as a source of small
financial reward.'' (pp. vii-viii)
Galbraith begins with what is now more widely accepted:
that the capitalist economy is prone to recurrent
bouts of speculation. He documents some of the classic
examples from history: ''Tulipomania'' in 17th century
Holland; the frenzy around the Banque Royale created
by the remarkable adventurer John Law in early 18th
century France; the South Sea Bubble just after that
in London; the state debt bubble in the US in the
1830s; the euphoria and crash of 1929, heralding the
Great Depression; and the more recent Wall Street
debacle of September 1987.
Each of these is a fascinating story in itself, perceptively
told. But what is most interesting is how Galbraith
draws upon the commonality of experience in all these
varying episodes to describe what he sees as an essential
tendency in market behaviour.
Usually such episodes begin with what the economist
Charles Kindleberger called ''displacement'' – some
new discovery or invention, a new market, a new economic
policy, or even a feel-good rumour – which captures
the financial imagination and encourages a price rise
in a particular market. As the price of the object
of the speculation goes up, it inevitably attracts
new buyers, who ensure a further price increase, in
an upward spiral providing its own momentum.
The buyers are of two kinds: those who believe that
the market will just keep going up, because economic
realities have changed fundamentally (much as in the
''new economy'' bubble), and those who think they can
ride the wave and jump off before it breaks, so as
to get maximum reward from the rise before what they
also see as inevitable collapse.
In all such events there is a thought that there is
something new, and an element of pride in discovering
what is seemingly new and greatly rewarding as financial
instrument or investment opportunity. But Galbraith
convincingly argues that financial operations do not
lend themselves to innovation. ''All financial innovation
involves, in one form or another, the creation of
debt secured in greater or lesser adequacy by real
assets.'' (p. 17) And consequently, all crises essentially
involve debt that in some way or the other has grown
dangerously out of scale with the underlying means
of payment.
The moment of the crash rarely comes gently and quietly:
mass disillusion is always accompanied by desperate
(and largely unsuccessful) attempts by the public
at large to get out, when it is already too late.
This seems obvious post facto, but seems to be forgotten
with surprising regularity, reflecting what Galbraith
calls ''the brevity of financial memory''. In the boom,
some new innovation is treated as somehow reducing
or doing away with risk (whether it is supposed increases
in productivity from new technology or instruments
like mortgage-backed securities or credit-default
swaps).
Euphoria also involves the widespread perception that
those driving and benefiting from the boom are inherently
brighter and more deserving than others: ''we compulsively
associate unusual intelligence with the leadership
of great financial institutions... In practice (they)
are often there because, as happens regularly in great
organizations, theirs was mentally the most predictable,
and, in consequence, bureaucratically the least inimical
of the contending talent.'' (p. 15) Nevertheless, public
fascination with them, and the sense that with so
much money involved they cannot be wrong, also reduces
any tendency they may have for self-scrutiny. Meanwhile
any dissenting voices are ignored at best or pilloried
for their defective imagination, mental inadequacy
or even suspect motivation.
Of course the crash, when it inevitably occurs, changes
the public mood totally. Those who were celebrated
are now scorned as the objects of public anger and
recrimination, and those who received the greatest
adulation for their financial genius are the ones
on whom the most opprobrium in heaped.
Surprisingly, in all the talk of regulation and reform
that ensues in the aftermath of the crash, the basic
reality of the aberrant public optimism that encouraged
the speculation is all but ignored. Instead, some
blame is placed on the more spectacular and felonious
of the previous speculators, but not to all participants
who entered the market, who are seen instead as victims.
Culprits are sought, who are to be punished, and there
is also scrutiny of the same financial instruments
that facilitated and financed the speculative phase.
But there is no questioning of the essential principles
of market functioning that underlay the entire process
of boom and crash.
One reason for this is of course human unwillingness
to accept the widespread naiveté or even stupidity
that was displayed during the period of euphoria.
But a more basic reason for this lack of recognition
of the broader public tendency could be theological:
the sacrosanct nature of markets.
''In accepted free-enterprise attitudes and doctrine,
the market is a neutral and accurate reflection of
external influences; it is not supposed to be subject
to an inherent and internal dynamic of error. This
is the classical faith. So there is need to find some
cause of the crash, however farfetched, that is external
to the market itself. Or some abuse of the market
that has inhibited its normal performance... Markets
in our culture are a totem; to them can be ascribed
no inherent aberrant tendency or fault''. (pp. 23-24)
This is what leads Galbraith to argue that ''there
is nothing in economic life so wilfully misunderstood
as the great speculative episode''. (pp. 107-108) After
such wisdom, his final conclusion is a bit of a disappointment:
''beyond a better perception of the speculative tendency
and process itself, there is probably not a great
deal that can be done.'' (p. 108) He even dismisses
regulation as leading to an ineffective body of law,
and suggests that only a philosophical acceptance
of this inevitable tendency will allow us to cope
with it.
Yet the answer as to what is to be done lies in Galbraith's
own analysis, not even buried but just under the surface.
The nature of capitalism itself and the associated
theological devotion to free markets are clearly at
the root of the problem, and so the solution too has
to go beyond capitalist markets and profit motivation.
It may be too much to expect those who have invested
their lives, imagination and resources in this system
to consider moving away from it, but surely that cannot
be true of the general public. If we are not to be
condemned to keep repeating this unfortunate and even
embarrassing history, we must be willing to understand
and move away from this system.
February
22, 2010.
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