The
massive and unfolding tragedy in Japan encapsulates
in extreme form the intersection of the three crises
that this blog deals with. The unprecedented earthquake
and tsunami were obviously unpredictable natural disasters,
but they also reflect the growing ecological fragility
that is at the heart of the fears about the looming
environmental crisis. The nuclear emergency that has
erupted thereafter in the Fukushima nuclear installations
is an extreme outcome of a particular pattern of development
that has been heavily based on maximising energy sources,
including the placing of nuclear reactors in known
seismic and tsunami-prone zones. That these unbelievably
tragic occurrences could then call forth massive financial
instability is an indication of how far we have allowed
our economies to become hostage to the most egregious
market forces, even in times of colossal calamity.
The enormity of this catastrophe, and how much worse
it could still get, are surely mind-numbing. What
stand out are the heroism, stoicism and discipline
not only of those affected, but of ordinary Japanese
who are coping with immediate devastation as well
as fears of unspeakable nuclear fallout. The particular
heroism of the workers engaged in the desperate struggle
to limit the damage to the Fukushima nuclear reactors
(at almost certain grave risk to their own lives and
health) is also remarkable.
No such discipline or heroism is evident in financial
markets, or among the ''pundits'' who populate the
media analysis of the business world. This is a country
that is in the throes of the worst calamity in living
memory, with the number of dead still unknown, huge
settlements and much infrastructure completely devastated,
many areas still unreachable, survivors further battered
by adverse weather and extreme cold - and now entering
completely uncharted territory with the real threat
of nuclear meltdown.
How have financial markets responded to this? By pummeling
this economy further, in the form of capital flight
and massive declines in stock market valuations in
the days immediately following the earthquake, and
by expressing vociferous demands that the Japanese
government immediately take action to ''calm nervous
markets'', as if those in charge really had no other
more pressing occupation at present.
When markets opened the week after the earthquake
and tsunami hit the east Japan coast, the Tokyo Nikkei
index fell sharply as fear hit the stock markets.
On Tuesday 15 March the value fell by 11 per cent,
the largest drop in a single day since the 1987 financial
crisis (from which many argue the Japanese economy
has still not really recovered). The slight recovery
the following day was not so much a sign of stability
as of the likely volatility in the days to come, as
was confirmed by the drop the next morning.
One player in the Japanese financial markets noted
that they are ''hostage
to the next headline''. The frenetic market
activity has reached a point at which some investors
have even called for a temporary halt to trading until
there is some sign of things settling down.
As a result, the Bank of Japan has had to provide
massive amounts of emergency financing, in the form
of ''quantitative easing'', on a daily basis. In the
four days from March 14-17, the central bank pumped
in more than 60 trillion Yen (more than $740 billion)
in a bid to stabilize the markets. These enormous
giveaways are not to those actually affected by the
disaster, but to financial markets that apparently
need this expensive reassurance. But even so, speculative
activity has continued to roil the markets.
Meanwhile, perceptions that that Japanese insurers
would have to repatriate funds to cover part of the
disaster payments have generated speculative pressures
that caused the yen to appreciate, even as stock markets
have plunged. This adds further financial insult to
already grievous injury, as the rising yen then puts
other pressures on the Japanese economy, which still
continues to be heavily dependent upon external trade.
These are quite apart from the actual effects of the
disaster, which have obviously affected production
dramatically.
And in the midst of all this, we have commentators
appearing on financial media, tutting away about how
Japan’s economy was already weak, about the various
ways in which productive activity will be affected,
about the hit that the global nuclear industry is
taking and - worst of all - about how the Japanese
government needs to do much more to bring back investor
confidence.
The obscenity of this combination defies description.
In the midst of a catastrophe of unimaginable magnitude,
with enormous humanitarian tragedies, the government
has to concern itself with appeasing financial markets
that will otherwise punish a society that is struggling
valiantly to survive. Do we need any more evidence
of the completely bizarre and even immoral way in
which we have all chosen to organize economic life
in the 21st century?
* This article appeared in the
Triple Crisis blog and is available at: http://triplecrisis.com/disasters-and-financial-markets/
April
11, 2011.
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