Not
much could have been expected from this G20 Summit.
Despite the urgency of a global economy going rapidly
over the cliff, there is still too much disagreement
about most issues among the members. Even so, the
resulting communiqué released with so much
fanfare is deeply disappointing.
There is deafening silence on the fiscal front, with
no clear commitment to co-ordinated fiscal stimulus,
just some vague statements. There are politically
correct noises about tax havens, banking secrecy and
financial regulation, but since small print matters
crucially in this regard, the statements are too general
to be meaningful.
The only apparently concrete commitment is to poor
countries that have been thrown into crisis by the
global turmoil, through pledges of $850 billion in
new funds. This sounds like a reasonable amount, but
how much of it is for real? And how unconditional
will such money flows be?
Not much, it turns out. For a start, the proposed
new allocation of SDRs ($250 billion) is to be a general
allocation, based on existing quotas. So the bulk
of it will go to ... the G20 countries! Helping poor
countries get more would require a special issue of
new SDRs – something that was proposed in the IMF
in 1997 but vetoed by the US, and held in abeyance
ever since.
Much of the rest of the money will be conditional
lending from the IMF, which has recently distinguished
itself only by its utter failure to prevent or deal
with financial crises in emerging markets because
of its aggressively procyclical conditionalities.
Indeed, the single greatest beneficiary of this G20
meeting must be the IMF, which would otherwise have
been on life-support as a global player.
Meanwhile, G20 has completely ignored the recommendations
of the Stiglitz Commission on international financial
reform set up by the more democratic international
body, the UN General Assembly. Just a few weeks ago,
this Commission recommended a new special allocation
of SDRs, along with a new credit facility for development
funds, strengthening regional initiatives and providing
1 per cent of all stimulus packages as ODA. These
would actually have made much more positive difference
to developing countries than the self-aggrandising
posturing of G20.
Even the G20's commitment to avoid protectionism sounds
ominous for developing countries, as it is combined
with the goal of “reaching an ambitious and balanced
conclusion” to the WTO trade negotiations, which can
only mean forcing more trade liberalisation that has
already led to agrarian crisis and deindustrialisation
in much of the South.
The basic problem, though, is that the G20 has not
produced anything like the response needed to pull
the world economy out of this unprecedented mess.
Clearly, the idea is to put back the broken pieces
somehow, to produce more of the same pattern of growth
as before. That is neither desirable nor sustainable,
and will rapidly run into crisis once more, at tremendous
human cost. What a pity that the would-be leaders
of the world have shown so little generosity or imagination.
April
4 , 2009.
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