It
is now clear that the prolonged party for international
finance capital is over, at least for now. The US
financial structure is crumbling, possibly even collapsing.
The collapse of the major Wall Street bank Bear Stearns
and the interest rate sops and enormous bailouts that
are being offered to financial institutions in the
US by the US Federal Reserve are only symptomatic
of the wider crisis.
This crisis was created by the unravelling of the
real estate boom, which was itself based on dodgy
lending practices. Everyone knows that what has already
come out is only the tip of the iceberg. The financial
crisis has already spread quite dramatically: from
"sub-prime" borrowers to "prime" borrowers; from bad
mortgage debt to bad credit card debt; and from banks
to hedge funds to insurance companies.
There is no doubt that there is much more bad news
to come within US markets. And most certainly, given
the sheer size of the US system and the complex forms
of financial pyramiding and entanglement with other
financial structures in different countries, the global
financial system will feel the impact.
But meanwhile, the actions of the Federal Reserve
– the US central bank – have at one level declared
the end of the recent era of freewheeling and deregulated
finance. The financial liberalisation of the past
two decades across the world was based on two mistaken
notions. First is the "efficient markets" hypothesis
beloved of some economists and many more financial
players, which asserts that financial markets are
informationally efficient, in that prices on traded
financial assets reflect all known information and
therefore are unbiased in the sense that they reflect
the collective beliefs of all investors about future
prospects. Second is the notion that financial institutions,
especially large and established ones, are capable
of and good at self-regulation, since it is in their
own best interests to do so. And therefore external
regulation by the state is both unnecessary and inefficient.
Both of these presumptions are now in tatters, completely
destroyed by the waves of bad news that keeps coming
from the financial markets, and by the growing evidence
of foolish and irresponsible behaviour that was clearly
indulged in by large and respectable financial players.
It has emerged that unreliable behaviours is not the
preserve of a few relatively small fly-by-night operators,
but is endemic even among the largest private players
in the financial system.
It is also increasingly clear that deregulated financial
markets today are characterised by huge conflicts
of interest: between the different functions that
investment banks have taken on in recent times, between
investment banks and regulators, between financial
interests and the media, and so on. Financial deregulation
allowed financial institutions to take on different
activities that were earlier clearly segregated. Thus
banks could take on non-bank financial services, and
vice versa. It is clear that in terms of the activities
of the banks, the integration of broking and underwriting,
of proprietary and customer trading, of market research
and investment advice, all give rise to huge conflicts
of interest within the leviathan investment banks,
and these conflicts are seldom or inadequately regulated.
As a result, banks can carry on with problematic practices
because they make their profits on commissions and
fees rather than on actual repayment by borrowers.
Such a situation was obviously not sustainable, and
all these undesirable financial practices have now
led to an enormous mess in the very heart of capitalism,
Wall Street. And this has already required large public
resources being made available to save fragile financial
institutions, with more spending likely.
So finance capital, which has so far systematically
tried to undermine the state and demanded autonomy
for all its actions, is now calling to that same state
to save finance from itself. But can this occur without
the state at least trying to reassert some control
over finance?
Not likely, if recent commentators are to be believed.
Several American economists, including Joseph Stiglitz
and Paul Krugman, have already called for more controls
on finance, most of all the separation of different
types of financial activity of banks and others. Now
the normally free-market-oriented columnist of the
Financial Times, Martin Wolf, has comes out even more
strongly. In a recent article (March 25, 2008) he
states: "Remember Friday March 14 2008: it was the
day the dream of global free-market capitalism died.
For three decades we have moved towards market-driven
financial systems. By its decision to rescue Bear
Stearns, the Federal Reserve, chief protagonist of
free-market capitalism, declared this era over. ..Deregulation
has reached its limits."
This has significance beyond just the United States.
All over the world, the Anglo-American style of financial
system and its pattern of financial deregulation has
been sold as the definitive model to follow. It already
led to financial crisis in Japan and a large number
of developing emerging markets but all of these were
blamed on internal problems of those countries, such
as "crony capitalism". Now, with the implosion of
the US financial market, such arguments are no longer
possible.
Martin Wolf also recognises this: "If the US itself
has passed the high water mark of financial deregulation,
this will have wide global implications. Until recently,
it was possible to tell the Chinese, the Indians or
those who suffered significant financial crises in
the past two decades that there existed a financial
system both free and robust. That is the case no longer.
It will be hard, indeed, to persuade such countries
that the market failures revealed in the US and other
high-income countries are not a dire warning. If the
US, with its vast experience and resources, was unable
to avoid these traps, why, they will ask, should we
expect to do better?"
In every crisis, the Chinese ideogram states, there
is also an opportunity. So in this current Us financial
crisis there is a tremendous opportunity not only
for the US but even more for the rest of the world,
to bring back the financial regulation that has turned
out to be so essential.
April 7, 2008.
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