Who’s Afraid of the Fiscal Deficit? Jayati Ghosh
The ongoing review of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act 2003, by a Committee set up by the central government, has once again brought to the fore the vexed question of whether limits should be set by law to the government’s fiscal practices. More particularly, the issue being considered is whether the rigid fiscal deficit and current deficit targets set by the FRBMA are either meaningful or desirable in the contemporary economic environment. There are many reasons to be willing to reconsider the FRBMA. While strict rules for limits on public debt and the fiscal deficit (either in absolute…
Housing Market Frenzy in China C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The urban housing market in China is experiencing a bubble that is driving property prices to unbelievable levels in some of the major cities. But the divergence in recent trends in house prices suggests that this bubble may soon burst. housing_market_china (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on October 11, 2016-11-03)
The Pulses Conundrum C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As inflation in the prices of pulses gives way to a price decline, a misplaced argument that the government should not regulate the private trade to curb speculation and stabilise prices is being expressed. Pulses_Conundrum (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on September 26, 2016.)
Recognising Different Skills and their Uses Jayati Ghosh
Skill development and training are two terms that are greatly beloved of policy makers – and indeed of analysts in general – as they seem to present easy solutions to so many labour market concerns. It is commonplace in India, for example, to hear that our economic growth is constrained by the lack of skills among the bulk of our workers, and that skill development is therefore not only a policy priority but also a relatively easy, inexpensive and painless way to ensure employment growth, especially in formal activities. It is seen as the proverbial low-hanging fruit for governments to…
Recent growth in the Indian economy Jayati Ghosh
What does one make of the Indian economy? It is now declared to be the fastest growing in the world, “the one bright spot in an otherwise gloomy world economy” according to IMF Chief Christine Lagarde, apparently on course to “become a key engine of global growth”. There is no doubt that the economic potential of India is huge: now with more than 1.2 billion people, with hundreds of millions of people with middle class aspirations who will constitute a huge and growing market. Over the decades the economy has diversified to some extent, even if the share of manufacturing…
India and Indians at Seventy Plus Jayati Ghosh
For the majority of Indians aged 70 or more, their sheer survival may be the most positive aspect of their lives since the state, instead of taking any measures of social protection, puts the burden of their care on families without considering their economic situation. indians_seventy_plus (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Frontline, Print edition: September 2, 2016)
Unexpected Inflation C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The return of inflation, even if moderate, at a time when India is experiencing a normal monsoon and after a long period of inflation-targeted monetary policy is surprising. Unexpected_Inflation (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on August 29, 2016.)
Care Work as the Work of the Future C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
As technological change threatens many different kinds of jobs, the significance of direct face-to-face interaction required in much care work means that it is unlikely to be as adversely affected. What does this mean for the future requirements of care workers? Future_Care_Work (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on August 15, 2016.)
The Economics of Political Change in Developed Countries Jayati Ghosh
Across the world, people have been watching recent political changes in developed countries with a mixture of bemusement and shock. From the recent anointment of Donald Trump as the Republican candidate for US President, to the rise and spread of blatantly racist anti-immigration political parties and movements in Europe, it is clear that there are tectonic shifts under way in the political discourse and practice in these countries. As these changes have gone from the unthinkable to the depressingly predictable, there are increasingly desperate attempts to understand what is driving them. This is especially the case because – despite all…
The Return to Retail Lending C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
After having retreated from retail lending in the years since 2005-06, banks burdened by NPAs in areas like infrastructure seem to be returning to the retail market. How far can this go? Retail_Lending (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on August 1, 2016.)
