Age of Uncertainty C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
With the US Federal Reserve deciding to exit the era of low interest rates even when growth in the rest of the world economy falters or remains sluggish, economic uncertainty intensifies. Age_Uncertainty (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on December 19, 2016)
Digital Dreams Jayati Ghosh
“Plastic is the new khadi” is the currently popular saying transmitted across social media. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government continuously shift the goal posts of the extraordinarily violent demonetisation move, it turns out that the fruit of all the trauma that the majority of the Indian population is going through will be – to become a cashless society! The exhortation to move to e-payments has become the basis for the new definition of nationalism: the ability to pay for something with a card or a mobile phone or internet account is now the real proof of your…
Money and the Social Contract in India Jayati Ghosh
The social contract between a state and its citizens is a complex thing. Philosophers of the European “Enlightenment” saw it as the basis on which society is organised so as to ensure the mutual protection and welfare of its members. It is therefore the implicit social arrangement whereby citizens give up some of their rights and freedoms to the state or a similar authority, in return for some degree of order and stability that would effectively ensure the protection of their remaining rights and freedoms. In very unequal societies, the voluntary nature of such a social contract is not particularly…
Can Developing Asia Hold its Ground? C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Capital flight from Asia points to investor concerns about both political processes in the big Asian developing economies and medium-term economic prospects. developing_asia_hold_ground (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on December 5, 2016)
India’s Export Collapse C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A peculiar combination of factors, besides the global recession, explains India's poor export performance in recent times. India_Export_Collapse (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on November 21, 2016.)
Demonetisation was Primarily a Political Act Jayati Ghosh
Two weeks into the surprise announcement of by Prime Minister Modi of the demonetisation of “high value” notes, it is becoming more evident by the day that the primary purpose was political rather than economic, and that this political purpose was specifically directed towards ensuring the fortunes of the ruling party vis-à-vis its rivals. Nothing else can explain the abrupt nature of the announcement or the subsequent manner of its implementation, which has been so apparently insensitive to the specific needs of so much of India’s working population. While a lot of the criticism of this scheme has focussed on…
The Political Economy of Demonetising High Value Notes Jayati Ghosh
The Modi government is extremely adept at optics, at policy measures presented in a blaze of publicity that dazzles the public, rather than with the required attention to detail that might ensure their success. The latest announcement of the demonetisation of high value bank notes is of the “shock and awe” variety of measures. While presented as evidence of the government’s supposedly firm resolve to root out black money, in reality it will barely touch the problem of generation of black money, even as it is being implemented in a way that causes immense economic harm to ordinary people and…
Colombia: The search for elusive peace Jayati Ghosh
They march in tens of thousands, every Wednesday, through the streets of central Bogota: young and old; students and teachers; well-paid professionals, trade unionists and informal workers; healthy and disabled; urban and rural residents; family members and friends of the countless numbers who have been killed or maimed or have simply disappeared during this apparently endless war. They march for peace, and for a renewed attempt to find an agreement to settle the decades-old war between named and unnamed protagonists. Ever since the peace agreement painfully negotiated between FARC (the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) and the government was rejected…
How successful is China’s Economic Rebalancing? C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
China's rapid economic growth has slowed recently - but does this reflect the desired rebalancing of the economy away from investment to consumption and wage-led growth? China_Economic_Rebalancing (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on November 8, 2016.)
Understanding the American Right Jayati Ghosh
A visit to the USA at the height of the Presidential election season, in a nation obsessed with polls that are just a few weeks away, creates simultaneous sensations of fascination, dismay and even horror. Even from a distance, the entire world has been watching this hugely significant election turn into an ever more sordid and distressing spectacle, with vitriolic lows in the campaign discussion that are perhaps unparalleled in any other election through time and across countries. The personal failings of both candidates are now only too well known, and are effectively blocking out all serious consideration of the…
