Jayati Ghosh’s Blog

There are many reasons to worry about and to be anguished by the communalisation of Indian politics and society that has proceeded apace over the last few decades. There is the general coarsening of the public discourse, which increasingly gets driven by prejudice and rumour rather than fact. There is the increase in both subtle and open forms of discrimination, typically directed by members of the majority community against the minority community, but often expressed against the “other” whenever that person or group is perceived as being weaker. There is the hardening of positions within communities, with hard-line stances in…

An analysis of India's ICT performance suggests that software export success tends to hide both imbalances in production and their adverse balance of payments fall-out. ICT  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on March 13, 2017)

What makes for a “Romantic” sensibility? Not in the literal sense of being inclined to “romance”, but in the sense of the movement that subsequently became a tradition in 19th century literature and the arts in Europe, when this sensibility permeated much creative endeavour. Romanticism has generally been associated with an emphasis on emotion and a celebration of subjectivity in terms of the individual’s response to the world; a glorification of nature, as well as of the past; in many ways a cultural expression of the reaction to the standardisation and rule-bound socio-economic patterns created by the Industrial Revolution. But…

So maybe the demonetisation never really happened. Maybe it was all a bad dream: the late evening announcement, the subsequent cash crunch, the regulatory chaos, the deaths because people could not get medical treatment with old notes. Maybe the reporters who described all the job losses and migrant workers forced to go back home and farmers unable to get their sowing done in time and so on were all affected by a mirage. Maybe those who conducted surveys and found massive drops in sales, in consumer spending, in livelihoods of informal workers and self-employed people were similarly deluded. And of…

Although divorce rates are low in India, separation is the dominant form of marital dissolution, and this is especially problematic for women because of the uncertain legal status and lack of rights. Marital_Breakdown_India  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on February 27, 2017)  

The Modi government over the past three years has not been noted for its generosity towards the social sector and spending to meet goals of improving human development. Indeed, if the past were any guide, there would be little reason to expect much increase in social sector budgetary outlays on the part of the central government. However, this year, for various reasons, analysts were led to expect that there would be at least some change from the fiscal disdain the government has shown in the past to this area. After all, the failed demonetisation has severely dented living standards of…

Post-Trump expectations of a shift back from an easy monetary policy with low interest rates to reliance on a fiscal stimulus for growth are reversing trends in global bond markets. Bond_Market_Reversal  (Download the full text in PDF format) * This article was originally published in the Business Line on February 13, 2017

There is a lot of buzz globally around the idea of a Universal Basic Income (or UBI). It is perceived as one way of coping with technology-induced unemployment that is projected to grow significantly in the near future, as well as reducing inequalities and increasing consumption demand in stagnant economies. Certainly there is much to be said for the idea, especially if it is to be achieved by taxing the rich and particularly those activities that are either socially less desirable or are generating larger surpluses because of technological changes. Indeed, that is precisely the proposal of the French Socialist…

The most striking thing about Arun Jaitley’s budget presentation for 2017-18 is just how unstriking it is. A lot of was expected from this Budget, and it is largely the Government’s own fault that the expectations were so many and so contradictory. In the event, the Finance Minister has presented a very “ordinary” Budget, which is unlikely to satisfy most people who recognise that these are definitely not “ordinary” economic times. First, this Budget comes directly in the wake of demonetisation followed by painfully slow and inadequate remonetisation, which has dealt a body blow to the informal sector as well…