Jayati Ghosh’s Blog

Sri Lanka’s new president, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, must reject his predecessor’s recent debt-restructuring deal with the IMF. That agreement would inflict unnecessary pain on Sri Lanka’s population and set a dangerous precedent, undermining other developing economies’ ability to restructure their foreign debts. Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sri Lanka’s president, recently lost his re-election bid after voters overwhelmingly rejected the debt-restructuring deals he negotiated with the International Monetary Fund and other creditors. Instead, Sri Lankans elected Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the left-wing National People’s Power (NPP) alliance and a vocal critic of IMF-imposed austerity measures, who has vowed to renegotiate the country’s agreement with the Fund............. Download…

The recent meeting of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) held in Beijing in the first week of September was an important indicator of a new phase in Africa-China economic relations. These reflect both the changing internal dynamics in China as its economy rebalances towards greater emphasis on domestic consumption and the recent changes in geopolitics that are altering international trade and financial patterns. China’s economic interaction with African countries, especially in the past decade, has been the object of much attention not only within Africa but globally. The rise of China has been hugely significant for the world economy—and…

The latest controversy in the South Asian University, over an interview with a philosopher mentioned in a student’s research proposal that resulted in severe backlash and eventual resignation of an eminent foreign professor, would appear to be ludicrous if it were not so tragic. It culminates several years of decline in a university that began with much loftier ideals. Click here for full article. (This article was originally published in The Indian Express on August 22, 2024)

The “demographic dividend” that was so eagerly anticipated in India more than a decade ago has already become a demographic disaster. India’s burgeoning youth population is achieving higher levels of education, and then entering a labour market that simply does not offer productive employment opportunities. So extreme is the employment crisis that the problem goes well beyond that of finding a “good job”—one that is regular, formal and with decent wages and working conditions. It extends to the growing inability to find any source of gainful employment at all, however low-paid and tenuous. This is clearly evident in the desperation…

The popular insurrection that ousted Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League government offers important lessons for the international community and neighboring India. While the unrest was undoubtedly fueled by the regime’s repressive and increasingly anti-democratic tactics, exemplified by its brutal crackdown on largely peaceful student protesters, the underlying causes of public discontent are often overlooked. Click here for full article. (This article was originally published in the Project Syndicate on August 13, 2024)

In the past three years, global food prices have been on a roller coaster, rising rapidly especially in the first half of 2022 due to a speculative bubble and then falling from July 2022 onwards (Figure 1). The phase of rising food prices led to increasing food prices around the world, especially in lower income countries—and this was obviously associated with growing hunger. According to the FAO, 122 million more people faced hunger in 2022 than in 2019, before the global pandemic. Around 42 per cent of the world’s population—more than 3.1 billion people—were unable to afford a healthy diet…

The recently released report from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Evaluation, the ‘Statistical report on value of output from agriculture and allied sectors (2011-12 to 2022-23)’ provides some estimates of how the value of agricultural output has changed since 2011-12. This is important information (even though the methodology involves several assumptions that could be called into question) since the 11-year period that is covered includes 9 years in which the country has been ruled by the Modi government, and therefore is a useful indicator of how agriculture has fared under that regime. This is especially relevant in the context…

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s inability to secure a parliamentary majority in India’s general election has shattered Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s aura of invincibility. Modi will now have to rely on coalition partners to pass legislation, potentially curbing his efforts to consolidate power. Click here for full article. (This article was originally published in the Project Syndicate on June 10, 2024)

Against all odds, in the elections to India’s parliament, whose results were announced last week, the opposition I.N.D.I.A. alliance managed to prevent the rampaging ruling party, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), from securing a majority on its own. In his own constituency, Modi’s lead over his nearest rival fell by around two-thirds, to significantly less than that secured by Rahul Gandhi of the Congress Party in the two constituencies he contested. And in the Hindi-speaking heartland, where Modi and the BJP sought to polarise along religious lines, spewing the most vitriolic hatred against Muslims, the party did particularly badly.…

The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have come as a shock to those who had mistakenly believed in the problematic exit polls, which continued the narrative so assiduously cultivated by the previous Modi government. Many pundits who had confidently justified those false predictions have already jumped to explain the actual results. One main explanation is that the INDIA alliance emphasised social justice and the caste census, stitched up more astute coalitions, and made sharper candidate choices in terms of caste. A Clear Message There is no doubt that the recognition of the need for social justice as well…