Jayati Ghosh’s Blog

The global economy is in the grip of an unprecedented crisis, once never experienced before in its history. The virus pandemic has yet to run its course in most countries, but meanwhile, the containment measures – which have involved major restrictions on mobility, gatherings and economic activity – have already imposed a massive economic cost. The restrictions and closures have meant simultaneous attacks on demand and supply – a uniquely terrible combination that has created a situation in which conventional policies simply will not suffice. World economic output will most definitely fall this year, possibly much more than the 3%…

Martin was an inspiration to all of us, because of his steadfast commitment, indefatigable energy, infectious enthusiasm and truly impressive capacity for hard work. His dedication to countries of the Global South was strong and his tenacity ensured that he would carry on and keep pushing a progressive agenda despite all obstacles. In addition to his sharp mind and analytical abilities, he also brought humanity and humour to his work. It is difficult to imagine the world of global development fighters without him. We will miss him greatly, even as we continue to benefit from his work. (Jayati Ghosh is…

A video recording of a webinar held on 8 April with Professor Jayati Ghosh, Quinn Slobodian, Walden Bello and Lebohang Pheko on the likely global impacts of the economic fallout from the Coronavirus and how we might be better prepared than the 2008 economic crisis to put forward progressive solutions. 750  people joined our second webinar in our weekly series on the economic fallout from COVID-19. Many are predicting a global recession that could have bigger social impacts than the virus itself. The webinar explored what can we expect, how social movements can prepare,  and what we learn from our…

India is on the verge of an unprecedented economic catastrophe as the humanitarian disaster from the Covid-19 pandemic unfolds. The sheer scale of disruption from the ongoing 21-day national lockdown, announced by prime minister Narendra Modi on March 24 to contain the outbreak, is unprecedented in Indian history. The disruption is much starker than the global financial crisis of 2008, which hit the Indian financial sector and real demand, but did not bring production to a halt. Besides, at the time, the Indian economy was much better placed to handle the crisis, as it had been growing rapidly in the years…

This lecture will try to essentially look at the impact of COVID-19 on the Indian economy — though, as we all understand, we are at a point where we don’t know anything about a lot of things, as the future seems to be riddled with uncertainties. We don’t know about the actual spread of the virus across the country nor do we know about the severity of its attack on the Indian population, and hence, it is quite difficult to talk about its impact on the Indian economy, as it all depends on a lot of other factors, with too…

COVID-19 is a global pandemic wrecking havoc with the healthcare systems of major developed nations and has so far claimed thousands of lives, globally. The extremely high levels of transmission has meant that governments throughout the world have had to freeze everyday functioning in their countries in order to counter the crisis. This has had severe repercussions on the economic front, with the IMF declaring that we are already in the midst of a global recession. It is being touted as a bigger hit to the world economy than the 2008 financial crisis. As such, COVID-19 is one of the…

In an interview that paints a stark and dramatic picture of the damage the coronavirus health scare will do to the economy – and is the first wake up call in this regard – Prof Jayati Ghosh of Jawaharlal Nehru University says more damage has already after been done to the economy in two days of lockdown than by demonetisation since it happened in November 2016. She says growth in March is already negative and the economy will shrink over the next three months. In a comprehensive interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, recorded a few hours before Prime Minister…

The global devastation caused by Covid-19 is only just beginning, with the severe threat to public health worsened by the evident inability to cope of most health systems across developing and developed countries. Many states across the world appear to have realised the serious potential of this pandemic and have declared lockdowns, closures, partial curfews and curtailment of all but essential activities in efforts to contain the contagion. The economic impacts of such lockdown are also just beginning to be felt, and will escalate in the coming months. The discussion on the economics of this pandemic has tended to focus…

How long the COVID-19 crisis will last, and what its immediate economic costs will be, is anyone's guess. But even if the pandemic's economic impact is contained, it may have already set the stage for a debt meltdown long in the making, starting in many of the Asian emerging and developing economies on the front lines of the outbreak. Click here for full article. (This article was originally published in the Project Syndicate on March 16, 2020)

It is now well known that the Periodic Labour Force Survey of 2017-18 of the NSSO (the release of which was originally suppressed by the government) revealed a dramatic fall in absolute employment of both men and women, and a further decline in women’s work force participation rates from their already very low levels. There are clearly important questions to ask about a macroeconomic trajectory that can generate such employment outcomes even as GDP appears to have increased reasonably rapidly. But the issue of women’s employment provides a particular conundrum, since it flies in the face of both received wisdom…