Economic Contraction and the Fiscal Stance of the Indian Government C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
It is generally recognised that the Indian economy was already in a steep slowdown well before the Covid-19 pandemic and badly planned lockdown further destroyed economic activity. But what is possibly not so well understood that that a major reason for the recent slowdown was not just government inaction (or acts of omission) but specific policy actions (or acts of commission) that actually worsened the problem. Essentially, the Indian government contributed to the economic slowdown by significantly reducing its public expenditure at a time when spending by other segments of the economy (households and enterprises) was already slowing or declining.…
India’s Response to Covid-19 has been Sadistic Jayati Ghosh
One of the most vocal critics of neoliberalism in general and the socioeconomic policies of India’s BJP-led Central government in particular, eminent economist Jayati Ghosh is known for her sharp and lucid views on social issues. In a conversation with Number13, Prof. Ghosh talks about India’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic and its myriad impacts on society. Edited excerpts: N13: How will Covid-19 impact the global economy? JG: First of all, we don’t even know what post-Covid is, because at the moment, it’s all very unclear as to how long and how widespread this pandemic will be. What is very…
New Fronts in the US-China Trade War C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
While everyone was busy looking at the Covid-19 numbers across the world, other “stuff was happening” in international trade: the US-China trade war, which started as far back July 2018, just got significantly worse. This on-again-off-again war has been a feature of the Trump Presidency, with the man who became president of the US in January 2017 vowing to prevent the US from being “exploited” by other countries, notably China, that had benefited from the US market by running bilateral trade surpluses. Trump focussed on the US aggregate surplus as well as certain bilateral surpluses, missing the basic point that…
INET Webinar: COVID-19 and the developing world Webinar with Dr. Jayati Ghosh
Developing countries, many of which appear not to have felt the health effects of COVID to the same extent as Europe and the US, are nonetheless facing severe economic effects as the pandemic pushes the global economy into a recession. Countries like India, which have rigorously enforced shelter-in-place orders without adequate protection of those losing livelihood, have seen massive disruptions in informal activities and attempts by millions of migrant workers to return to their homes. Many other governments, already burdened with significant debt and facing foreign exchange constraints, are not in the position to carry out the fiscal and…
Will Diluting Labour Laws in India in Indian States Attract More Private Investment? Jayati Ghosh
The class war waged by employers in India has never been so blatant, nor has the openly partisan behaviour of the executive and judiciary. What began ostensibly as a public health exercise to prevent the spread of a virus infection has turned into an all-out war against India’s working people. The abruptly announced and poorly-planned decision for national lockdown has created an economy on the verge of complete collapse and even greater public health risks. Now we have an economy in shambles and a virus still on the rampage, and belatedly realise that we have no option but to learn…
How to Build the Global Green New Deal Jayati Ghosh
The demands for a "Global Green New Deal" were never about some Utopian vision or naïve perception of global togetherness: combined and co-ordinated global efforts are necessary to ensure the survival of the planet and of human life on it. But the Covid-19 pandemic is driving home the urgency of internationalism — and not just through the sheer rapidity and force of the global spread of the disease. The unfolding of the pandemic, the national policy responses and the economic impacts, all demonstrate how such processes can dramatically increase inequalities between and within countries, and also that solutions simply cannot…
Covid-19 Crisis calls for Universal Delivery of Food and Cash Transfers by the State Jayati Ghosh, Prabhat Patnaik and Harsh Mander
The immediate need for universal food and cash delivery is by now obvious and urgent. Across the country, there are reports of people — migrant workers, local workers, peasants, pastoralists, fisherpeople, vendors, ragpickers, and the destitute — facing extreme hardship, even starvation, because their livelihoods have been extinguished by the lockdown. These have created further an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, as millions of households with depleted savings have no way to access food and other basic necessities over the coming weeks. The threat of infection from COVID-19 makes even harder their coping mechanisms. In these dire circumstances, it is essential for the state…
The Pandemic and the Global Economy Jayati Ghosh
There are still many uncertainties about the COVID-19 pandemic: about the extent of its spread, its severity in different countries, the length of the outbreak, and whether an initial decline could be followed by a recurrence. But some things are already certain: we know that the economic impact of this pandemic is already immense, dwarfing anything that we have experienced in living memory. The current shock to the global economy is certainly much bigger than that of the 2008 global financial crisis, and is likely to be more severe than the Great Depression. Even the two world wars of the…
When the US and India Together Failed the Developing World C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
At the recent G20 and IMF-WB Spring meetings held virtually in the third week of April 2020, a proposal for the IMF to issue an additional 500 billion of SDRs was blocked by the United States and – astonishingly – by India. In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and the unprecedented collapse of global economic activity, there had been many calls for the IMF to issue at least 1 trillion SDRs. This would be particularly important for all developing countries, since they are currently facing the brunt of the collapse in world trade and tourism, as well as sharp…