Shopping Frenzy in the New China C. P. Chandrasekhar
In an otherwise gloomy world economic environment, a new kind of record given the media bizarre cause to cheer: the value of online sales notched up by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba on a single discount sales day. Global business headlines screamed that in its annual sale on Singles’ Day, 11 November 2017, Alibaba had registered a record sales value of 168.2 billion yuan or $25.3 billion. Singles’ Day, or 11 November, was, because of its 11/11 aspect, reportedly chosen around 25 years ago by students of Nanjing University to celebrate the fact of being single. Using what has evolved to…
Indian IT hits a Speed Dump C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A sharp deceleration in growth and restricted employment expansion in the IT sector, India’s post-liberalisation showpiece, has implications beyond the industry’s boundaries. Indian_IT_Speedbump (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally posted in the Business Line on November 20, 2017.)
Engineering a New Crisis to resolve an Old One C.P. Chandasekhar
News that the US economy grew at 3 per cent during the hurricane-blighted third quarter of 2017, close to the 3.1 per cent recorded in the previous quarter, has once more revived claims that the world economy has left the Great Recession behind. There is one reason to discount this claim. Back to back 3 per cent annualized rates of growth in consecutive quarters has been observed more than once since the 2008 crisis. In fact, as recently as the second and third quarters of 2014, rates of GDP growth in the US stood at 4.6 and 5.2 per cent…
The Slide of an Aging Leader C. P. Chandrasekhar
After 15 years, the Tata group has exited the mobile telephony business. Its assets in the area located in Tate Tele Services Ltd (TTSL) have been taken over by Bharti Airtel. The Tata name has featured in the mobile telephony market ever since it acquired Hughes Telecom (India), incorporated in 1995, and renamed it Tata Teleservice Maharashtra in 2002. Since Tata Tele’s other enterprise, retail fixed line, and broadband businesses are being merged with Tata Communications and Tata Sky, TTSL is in essence being dismembered. Few of the firm’s current employees would be absorbed by Airtel or the Tatas themselves.…
The Crisis in Agriculture C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The dilution of government intervention in the form of minimum support prices, procurement and public distribution is undermining the medium-term viability of agricultural production in India. crisis_in_agriculture (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on October 23, 2017.)
Create a Crisis and make it Worse C. P. Chandrasekhar
On August 10, the government tabled a new bill in Parliament, with the aim of using its majority to push through a desperate policy initiative in the form of the Financial Resolution and Deposit Insurance (FRDI) Act. The Act seeks to create an ostensibly ‘independent’ FRDI Corporation, which would take over the task of resolution of failing financial firms from the Reserve Bank of India and other regulators. To that end, it is to be armed with special and near draconian powers to implement its mandate, and given control of the deposit insurance framework currently managed by the Deposit Insurance…
Mixed Signals from the External Sector C. P. Chandrasekhar
A slew of numbers released recently point to rather peculiar and contrary trends in India’s balance of payments. Exports have revived but the trade and current account deficits widen, pointing to an excess of foreign exchange expenditure relative to earnings. While the widening current account deficit points to a weakening balance of payments position, foreign exchange reserves are at record levels. The foreign exchange reserve increase is funded largely by capital flows, consisting of a very large share of investments in the debt market. Such large capital inflows are strengthening the rupee and undermining export competitiveness, which can worsen the…
The Emerging Crisis in Real Estate C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The slow down and partial crisis in India's real estate sector reflects the challenges facing post-reform growth in India. Emerging_Crisis_Real_Estate (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on September 25, 2017.)
Downturn Blues C. P. Chandrasekhar
September did not begin well for the Narendra Modi government. As it prepared for a makeover in the form of a cabinet reshuffle with elections 2019 in sight, news came that India’s GDP growth had slowed significantly to 5.7 per cent during the quarter April-June. This deceleration comes in the wake of a fall in growth rates from close to 8 per cent a year earlier to 6.1 per cent during January to March this year. As is to be expected the government has chosen to attribute this trend to short term shocks, which will not dislodge the economy from…
Foreign Investor Appetite C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
A brief decline in portfolio inflows into equity markets has raised the question whether foreign investment flows into India have peaked. The evidence of investments in debt markets suggest otherwise. That, however, need not be all good news. Foreign_Investor_Appetite (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally posted in the Business Line on September 11 2015)
