The book illustrates how that singular commodity
has molded the economies and societies of hydrocarbon
rich countries such as Colombia and Mexico,
which were important for the world oil players
already at dawn of the second decade of the
twentieth century. It clearly explains why industrialized
countries become addicted to oil and since the
very early WW Century, oil has become the blood
of the global political, military and economic
system. Therefore, owning and controlling oil
resources grew into the policy axis of the super
powers. There are two main reasons: First, the
extraordinary value of oil for the military
prowess of France, England and the United States,
and second, its centrality in the entire production
system. For all of these, it is impossible to
affirm that the oil market has ever been or
could be a competitive market.
Colombia and Mexico have differed in the design
of their economic policies in general and most
notably regarding oil. Both countries nationalized
the oil industry, although in different ways
and times. Colombia eliminated concessions in
the 50s always maintaining a pivotal participation
of foreign investments in exploration, production
and trade of oil. Mexico totally nationalized
its industry in the 30s. However, the two countries
resemble the effects of the oil industry on
society, economy, institutions and political
economy in general: depletion, oiling of the
fiscal accounts, backward agriculture and manufacturing,
and precariousness of employment and income.
These claims emerge clearly and logically out
of the analysis of the Mexican bonanza with
Cantarell and the Colombian one with Cusiana
and Cupiagua. This parallel sheds light on the
likely effects of recent Mexican energy reform
and is certainly a great contribution to national
and international understanding on the problems
oil posses to national economies, dependent
on oil exports.
CONTENTS:
Introduction
CHAPTER I.
Oil: a global commodity in a market that never
was
- The oligopolistic path of oil market, 1859-1973
1.1
The “Texas Railroad Commission (RRC)”
agreement. The origins of the market suppression,
1917 -1928
1.2
From the Twenty Eight the Seven Sisters, 1928-1940
- Oil Under OPEC rules, 1973-2012: Is an oil
market emerging?
2.1
The prices under the OPEC rules
2.1.1
The first years of OPEC: 1973-1981
2.1.2
The costs of success, ¿ 1982-1998:
A return to the beginning?
2.1.3
Towards a new price boom(?): 1999-2013
CHAPTER II
The determinants in the making of international
oil prices.
- Introduction
- The rocky path of oil prices
- The surplus production capacity. A short
term factor driving prices?
- The renewal of reserves and expansion of
productive capacity
4.1
The development of oil reserves
4.2
Does OPEC decide or not to invest at the necessary
pace and intensity?
4.3
Escalating costs of adding reserves in the
last years
4.4
The addition of reserves. Some concepts
4.5
The evolution of reserves in long cycles perspective
4.6
The never ending accumulation of oil reserves:
Did Hubert fail?
- Appendix.
Appendix 5.1
The faulty projections of world oil prices
and oil USA production
Appendix 5.2
The Hotelling model
CHAPTER III
World oil supply and demand: Two forces in unending
change.
- Introduction
- The models
- Energy security: the power of politics behind
the oil market
3.1
What does energy security really meant?
3.2
The measurement of energy security
- Energy security and the dynamics of oil
supply and demand
4.1
Short term strategies
4.1.1
Supply’s measures: stock accumulation
and strategic reserves.
4.2
Restrictions on demand.
4.3
The long term policies shaping the structure
of oil supply and demand:
4.3.1
The rise of oil production in no OPEC countries
4.3.2
The ascend of exports
4.3.4
The access of private capital to reserves.
The impacts on prices and demand
4.3.5
Diversifying the sources of energy supply:
biofuels
4.4
Changing the dynamics of oil consumption
4.4.1
The deceleration of oil demand
4.4.2
The lessening of oil and energy intensity
of economies
4.4.3
The dependence on oil imports
4.4.4
The diversification of consumption by energy
source
CHAPTER IV
Production and consumption of oil in Mexico
and Colombia, 1920-2012
- Introduction
- From the first years to the debt crisis
1921-1982 2.1 Oil in national economies during
the economic liberalism era, 1900-1945. 2.2
Oil in the postwar period, the import substitution
and the debt crisis. 1945-1982. 3. The return
to liberalism. Changing the role of oil in
the national economies, 1982-2012 4. Contractual
reforms in Colombia. Constant and costly pursuit
of foreign investment 5. The Mexican energy
reform. The contracts with private investors
and fiscal policy.
CHAPTER V The history of two bonanzas: the
political economy of oil in Colombia and Mexico
during the neoliberal economic model: 1980-2012
- Introduction
- About oil bonanzas affecting Mexico and
Colombia.
- The political economy of oil in two early
oil exporting developing countries.
3.1
General concepts
3.2
The oil bonanzas of Colombia and Mexico. Some
political and economic effects
- The size and duration of oil bonanzas.
4.1
Cantarell’s bonanza
4.1.1
Volume y value of Cantarell’s bonanza
4.2
Colombian price and volume oil bonanzas
4.2.1
Volume bonanzas
4.2.2
Price bonanzas
- The oil rent.
5.1
The petrolification of national economies
5.2
The finance of state oil companies 5.3 The
distribution of oil rent
CHAPTER VI
Effects of oil wealth in Colombia and Mexico.
The Dutch Disease predictions did came true
- Introduction
- The basic Dutch Disease (DD) model
- Is it justified to prevent DD and how to
do it?
- The lessons of the oil shocks of the 1970
and 1980 decades
- The econometric DD model used in this work
5.1
Overview
5.2
The central equations
5.3
The analysis unit root models to Colombia
and Mexico
5.4
Econometric model
5.5
Correlation analysis
- Appendix Appendix
6.1
The basic Dutch Disease Model.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
REFERENCES
February 5, 2015. |