A
tempting first reaction to the World Development Report
2006 (henceforth WDR 2006)[1],
entitled Equity and Development, is that it represents
a significant advance. Whereas previous WDRs (in particular
WDR 1990 and 2000/01) had concerned themselves with
the need to reduce the absolute disadvantages experienced
by countries and by persons, WDR 2006 is the first
WDR centrally to be concerned with relative inequalities
between nations and between persons. Relative inequalities
are viewed in WDR 2006 as concerns in themselves.
The report defines equity as the requirement that
"individuals should have equal opportunities
to pursue a life of their choosing and be spared from
extreme deprivations in outcomes" (p.2). It thus
combines the emphasis of recent normative reasoning
on ‘starting gate equality" with an insistence
that outcomes that fall beneath a threshold of minimal
adequacy must be deeply disvalued. This construction
is rather clunky and appears to be the product of
a political compromise rather than a foundational
philosophical view, but is workable.
In many respects, WDR 2006 reflects the most progressive
face of the World Bank (henceforth Bank). The report
is concerned with absolute and relative disadvantages
in their many dimensions (including health, education,
political power, and real income). The report recognizes
that disadvantages in these dimensions are often related.
The report notes that self-perpetuating low level
equilibrium traps are often associated with severe
absolute deprivations or large relative inequalities
and that there are often deep historical origins for
these traps. The report also recognizes that inter-generational
social mobility is often low and that specific policies
are necessary to increase it. These features of the
report are significant, and are worthy of praise.
It can be argued that the report constitutes a landmark
in terms of the breadth of its analysis and the choice
of its theme.
However, from the standpoint of the developing countries,
the report also possesses central inadequacies. Three
of the classes into which inadequacies can be placed
are the following:
1. Data and Inferential Inadequacies
The authors of the report cannot be blamed for making
use of flawed data, as it may have been the best available
to them. However, they can be blamed for failing to
recognize the implications for their ability to draw
meaningful conclusions of the inadequacies in existing
data. For example, the choice of specific PPPs for
many countries (including large ones, such as such
as India and China) is highly questionable. Many countries
have not recently, or in some instances ever, participated
in benchmark surveys of the International Comparison
Program, on the basis of which PPPs are identified.
The implications of alternative choices of PPPs for
assessments of global deprivations and inequalities
are enormous, and must be centrally confronted [See
e.g. Reddy and Minoiu (2005a, 2005b)]. Similarly,
the report places great store in assessments that
there have been reductions in global income poverty,
deriving from the World Bank's money-metric ($1 and
$2 per day) approach to poverty assessment. These
assessments are open to questioning on the basis both
of their foundational assumptions and estimation techniques
[See e.g. Reddy and Pogge (2003)].
2. Selective History and Analysis
The report recognizes the role of historical phenomena
(for example, the imprint of slavery and colonialism)
in shaping existing patterns of inequality and deprivation
within and across countries. The report also recognizes
that within-country inequalities have been rising
in the recent period. However, it fails to recognize
that the policies recommended by the Bretton Woods
Institutions may have been among the major reasons
for the increases in relative inequality observed
in countries in recent years. Structural adjustment
policies and their successors may have among the central
causes of widening income distribution in many countries,
contrary to what had been anticipated on the basis
of simple trade models (and in particular the Stolper
Samuelson theorem, which in its most simple variant
predicts that trade liberalization in particular will
lead to decreases in relative inequality in developing
countries). A considerable body of technical literature
(much of it focusing on Mexico's experience in the
aftermath of NAFTA) has in recent years concerned
itself with explaining possible theoretical explanations
for the apparent unexpected impact of trade liberalization
[See for example the work of Robert Feenstra, Gordon
Hanson, Ann Harrison, James Galbraith, Zadia Feliciano,
Pinelopi Goldberg, Nina Pavcnik and Ana Revenga, cited
in the references].
This literature is not even mentioned in the WDR's
treatment of the effects of trade liberalization in
Mexico (p.195). Similarly, there is reason to think
that financial liberalization and labor market liberalization
may each have contributed to widening inequalities
within countries, contrary to arguments frequently
put forward. Arguments of this kind, which assert
that at least some of the reason for widening inequalities
within countries may be the implementation of policies
recommended by the Bretton Woods institutions, do
not appear adequately to be recognized and confronted.
The role of policies recommended by the Bretton Woods
institutions in the past (for example, the implementation
of user fees in the health sector or reductions in
public investment in universities) respectively in
increasing absolute disadvantages and in widening
inequalities between nations, has not been admitted.
The report often relies on questionable indicators
and analytical tools. For example, more secure property
rights, as judged by foreign investors, are used as
a proxy for the quality of institutions. A blithe
footnote (p.108) avers without offering further evidence
that "These data…are imperfect as a measure of
the relevant institutions because they pertain to
investments by foreigners only. Even so, they seem
in practice to capture how stable property rights
are in general".
The report seeks too often to place the diverse phenomena
that it confronts into an accustomed lens. For example,
it describes domestic violence as an "inefficiency"
(p.54). Although domestic violence is abominable,
the reason that it is so is surely not that it constitutes
an "inefficiency".
3. Weak, Questionable or Unhelpful
Prescriptions
It is perhaps not surprising, in view of the partial
nature of the history provided and the analysis undertaken
in the report that the recommendations for policies
that may decrease absolute disadvantages and relative
inequalities are also perhaps overly restrictive.
There are some excellent innovative proposal in the
report, which are in the interests of developing countries
(for example, the proposal to create a "generic
drug region" in which "inventors in developed
countries make legally binding commitments to their
own governments not to enforce patent rights in certain
pharmaceutical markets" (pp. 224-5)). Similarly,
the report correctly emphasizes the role of certain
agricultural policies in developed countries (for
instance, cotton subsidies) in depressing opportunities
in poor countries. The report rightly takes note that
aid should be targeted where it is most needed as
well as it is most effective. It recognizes that there
has been an influential move to target aid toward
countries that are perceived to possess "good
policies" but is perhaps not adequately critical
of the recent attempts to articulate this view, which
take a very narrow view of what constitute "good
policies" and appear to recommend that countries
which do not possess such policies should not be beneficiaries
of development aid at all.
The policies recommended in the report are more often
than not accustomed policies which have been recommended
in the past. It is a miracle that the same set of
policies appears to be the prescription for all ills.
For example, labor market deregulation (in particular
reduction in the cost of firing and hiring) is once
again held up as a highly desirable policy, and "overly
generous unemployment benefit and social assistance
systems, which discourage[s] job search" (p.192)
are decried. Increased competition in domestic financial
markets is advocated. The need to identify policies
that specifically benefit the poor or relatively disadvantaged
is too often glossed over in favor of general prescriptions
that may serve other interests entirely. For example,
the epilogue to the report concludes that the "twin
pillars" of a national development strategy aimed
at increasing "equity" are a "better
investment climate" and "empowerment".
It is stated that "for most people in the developing
world, and certainly for the poor, it is not possible
to have one without the other". Many actual and
possible conflicts of objectives are glossed over
here; a better investment climate for the poor may
not always be what makes for a better investment climate
for relatively wealthy domestic or foreign investors,
at least in the short run.
The report notes, for example, that it is possible
(p.228) that "the government…will not enforce
tax collection, rather than build rural roads",
presumably because underlying conflicts of interests
are resolved in favor of the relatively wealthy, whether
at home or abroad. How potential conflict of this
kind should be handled is not addressed. In this and
other respects, the report presents an account of
political economy that is naïve. The broad invocation
of the need for a "better investment climate
for all" without any effort to address such conflicts
can have at most limited value in the formulation
of policies that reduce absolute deprivations and
relative inequalities. The treatment of property rights
protections in the report is in this respect especially
incoherent. Sound institutions are equated with those
that protect property rights. However, land reforms
including "expropriating with compensation"
(p.167) are treated favourably, and the reader is
told that (p.122) "The key to China's equitable
development was the combination of initial conditions
and the economic reforms" without apparent recognition
that China's favourable "initial conditions"
were the consequence of an earlier and comprehensive
economic and social revolution.
Conclusion:
The WDR 2006 is a commendable effort in comparison
to many of its predecessors. However, it is still
dissatisfying. Its intellectual basis is weak, its
contents are not adequately complete and its prescriptions
are often either questionable or of limited practical
value.
A question that must be asked is: "Who does the
WDR serve?" The substantial resources expended
each year in the production of the WDR could perhaps
better be used by supporting independent competitive
research institutes (in developing countries to the
extent feasible) charged with the task of generating
development research that is autonomous, intellectual
rigorous and globally relevant. Competition can be
beneficial in policy analysis, just as it is alleged
to be beneficial in labor, capital and product markets.
Perhaps this is the lesson that should be learned
in this third decade of the WDR.
REFERENCES
Feliciano, Zadia. 1993. "Workers and Trade Liberalization:
The Impact of Trade Reforms in Mexico on Wages and
Employment." Mimeo, Harvard University.
Robert Feenstra & Gordon Hanson, 2001. "Global
Production Sharing and Rising Inequality: A Survey
of Trade and Wages," NBER Working Paper 8372,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Feenstra, Robert C & Hanson, Gordon H, 1996. "Globalization,
Outsourcing, and Wage Inequality" American Economic
Review, vol. 86(2), pages 240-45.
James Galbraith and Vidal Garza Cantú, "Exporting
Inequality? Recent Changes in industrial wage inequality
in Canada, Mexico and the United States," Income
and Productivity in North America, Commission on Labor
Cooperation, Washington, 2001, 27-54.
Goldberg, P. and N. Pavcnik, "Trade, Inequality,
and Poverty: What Do We Know? Evidence from Recent
Trade Liberalization Episodes in Developing Countries",
Brookings Trade Forum, 2004.
Hanson, G. (2003). "What Has Happened to Wages
in Mexico since NAFTA?" NBER Working Papers 9563,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Hanson, G. and A. Harrison (1999), "Trade Liberalization
and Wage Inequality in Mexico", Industrial and
Labor Relations Review, vol. 52, No. 2.
Reddy, S. and C. Minoiu (2005a), "Has World Poverty
Really Fallen?", available on www.socialanlysis.org
Reddy, S. and C. Minoiu (2005b), "China's Poverty
Reduction Experience in the 1990s", available
on www.socialanalysis.org
.
Reddy, S. and T. Pogge (2003), "How Not to Count
the Poor", available on www.socialanalysis.org
Revenga, Ana. (1997). "Employment and Wage Effects
of Trade Liberalization: The Case of Mexican Manufacturing."
Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. S20-S43.
October 1, 2005.
[1] This review was originally prepared
for the Inter-Governmental Group of 24 on International
Monetary Affairs and Development, group of developing
countries.
* sr793@columbia.edu
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