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News Analysis
Who pays the Price for Financial Bailouts?
Jayati Ghosh
The issue of moral hazard cannot be looked at only in terms of faceless institutions that are being rescued with taxpayers’ money. But it must also deal with the small number of individuals who were enriched by the boom, who were able to manipulate government policies to ensure the creation and prolongation of what was always a speculative bubble that would inevitably end.
A World of Inequality
Jayati Ghosh
As economies slow down, people in the developing world who did not gain from the boom will face deteriorating conditions of living. But now that there is overwhelming evidence of the failure of the economic model on which the boom was based, we can think afresh about how to organise economic life, both nationally and globally.
   
The End of the Illusion
Prabhat Patnaik
The neo-liberal illusion of the market being “efficient” is now over with the threat of collapse of the US financial system and the unprecedented upsurge in oil prices. Both have been the outcome of speculation and the associated underestimation of risks, which in turn have been due to the lack of government intervention and the globalization of finance. The form in which the system will recover opens up new possibilities of praxis.
The Global Financial Crisis
Jayati Ghosh
The bailout worked out by the US government to save the financial system is not a progressive nationalisation but the socialisation of the risks of capitalists, and one that is to be borne by taxpayers in the US and by developing countries. The hugely expensive gamble, instead of helping the US government buy its way out of the crisis, would weaken its position as the dominant imperial power in future.
   
No End to the Global Meltdown
C.P. Chandrasekhar
More than a year since the sub prime crisis began, the financial meltdown still persists. With the Lehman brothers filing for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch selling out recently, most major investment banks seem to be facing a new set of problems. These are related to the now-not-so-new sub-prime crisis and the unwillingness of both the institutions concerned and the regulators to properly assess the effects of that crisis on their financial viability.
Innovative Scamsters
C.P. Chandrasekhar
The recent emergence of a set of financial instruments, by the name of ‘auction rate securities’ or ARS, signifies another symbol of the malfunctioning global financial markets. The ARS system apparently follows a transparent and market efficient principle, but in reality results in a lowering of the notional value of securities held by investors in the absence of an active market.
   
The World Bank's New Poverty Estimates – Digging Deeper into a Hole
Sanjay G. Reddy
The World Bank's new estimates of global poverty, based on the new benchmark international poverty line of $1.25 a day 2005 PPP, still suffer from same problems as the earlier estimates. The underlying source of the problems is the lack of a clear criterion for identifying the poor, and that basic deficiency remains unaddressed. The Bank's chosen international poverty line is still far too low to cover the cost of purchasing basic necessities, and the Bank uses inappropriate purchasing power parities (PPPs) to convert its poverty line across currencies.
The Commodity Price Roller Coaster
Jayati Ghosh
Despite arguments regarding the role of 'fundamentals' in generating the recent price rises in oil and in other commodities especially food, the sheer volatility in these prices over the recent past indicates the clear role of speculative forces in commodity markets which have grown stronger in the wake of the financial crisis in the US and have been looking for options to make profit elsewhere.
   
Back to Economic Growth Basics
Jayati Ghosh
Discussions about economic growth and how to generate it are back in fashion among economists, unfortunately in a period of impending stagflation. However, interesting is the fact how growth prescriptions, even from mainstream quarters, seem to acknowledge the failure of the conservative policies.
WTO: One More Failure
C. P. Chandrasekhar
The collapse of the talks of the Doha Round on 29th July, 2008 is no big deal since along the long route of the Doha round, periodic failure of negotiations is inevitable. This is not a disaster for advocates of trade liberalisation either because, in most countries, actual levels of protection are much lower than the bound levels WTO talks about. The point to note is that the so-called progress in trade liberalisation notwithstanding, the fundamental asymmetry of the world trading system remains.
   
The Coup D’ Etat
Prabhat Patnaik
The Indo-US nuclear deal is not an isolated issue, but a part of a larger process of attempts at changing the character of the Indian State to a neo-liberal State integrated with US imperialism. Given the objective economic conditions leading to further shrinkage of the already miniscule political constituency in favour of "reforms", such a change in the character of the Indian State can be effected only through a coup d'etat as was witnessed on July 22.
The Global Oil Price Story
Jayati Ghosh
The straightforward explanations based on real demand and supply are simply not useful in understanding the current oil price hike. Rather, the price for this very physical commodity, this universal intermediate, is now determined in the virtual world. In other words, speculative forces, operating especially through the commodity futures markets, are driving the current oil price surge.
   
NAMA: Developed Countries as the Donors?
Malini Chakravarty
Texts related to the Non Agricultural Market Access (NAMA) in the ongoing Doha Round of WTO negotiations, right from the time of its inception, have been biased against the developing country members. This article traces the development in the various NAMA texts and tries to bring out the factors that have come to form the core of the contention between the developed and the developing countries.
Global GDP Growth: A Longer View
Jayati Ghosh & C. P. Chandrasekhar.
Discussions of GDP growth at both national and international levels often get carried away by relatively recent trends, but it is important to situate recent income growth in the longer term context. In this article the authors examine the evidence on GDP global and regional growth in the second half of the twentieth century and beyond.
   
Idols of the Market-Place
Sumanasiri Liyanage
This note follows up the discussion in the author's previous article on the fallacy of neoliberal economics in laying out an effective development strategy for developing economies. This article tackles the issue of free trade in particular and argues that not only does neo-classical orthodoxy not sit very well with historical experience in developed countries, it is theoretically flawed.
The Dead-End Formula of Neo-Liberal Economics
Sumanasiri Liyanage
This article argues that given the inherent ineffectiveness and incorrectness of the neo liberal policy package in its totality, which has been forwarded with much vigour by the international financial institutions, it is imperative that developing countries look for other alternatives if they want a sustained and stable development strategy, an integral part of which must be protection for its infant industries.
   
Turkey and the Long Decade with the IMF: 1998-2008
A. Erinc Yeldan
This article provides a critical review of Turkey’s engagement with the IMF over the past decade which ended recently. It argues that the end of the stand by in May 2008 signifies neither autonomy from the IMF nor a successful graduation and a completion of the IMF programme. Present Turkey is characterized by high debt, speculative growth environment with jobless patterns with its government institutions under siege.
Fear of Foreigners
Jayati Ghosh
There has been a significant increase in immigration into Italy in the past decade and a half, a significant proportion of which is still “illegal”. The reasons for this rise have been demographics, institutional factors as well as government policy. But recently, in a clear reversal from the past, the attitude towards illegal immigration has hardened in the country, with some of it targeted especially against developing country immigrants.
   
Small Farmers and the Doha Round: Lessons from Mexico's NAFTA Experience
Mritiunjoy Mohanty
This policy brief has been written in the context of the demand of developing countries, including India, in the on-going Doha round of WTO negotiations for policy space within which protect the livelihood security of their small and marginal farmers. It uses Mexican agriculture’s integration experience under NAFTA to establish that developing country demands are justified.
Debt Relief as if Justice Mattered
David Woodward
This report is the last in a series from New Economics Foundation designed to stimulate progress towards a comprehensive and fair treatment of the crisis of sovereign debt. With the end of an unprecedented period of low interest rates now in sight, such a goal is needed more than ever. We incluse a short summary of this paper in section.
   
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Economics Associates 2008
 

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