Obstacles
to Implementing Lessons from the 1997-1998
East Asian Crises |
| Jomo
Kwame Sundaram |
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Various and sometimes
contradictory lessons have been drawn
from the 1997-1998 East Asian crisis
experiences. The ideological implications
and political differences involved have
complicated the possibility of drawing
shared lessons from the crises. The
seeming calm and increased growth in
most developing countries in the period
since 2001 have also undermined the
possibility of far-reaching developmental
reforms following the experience. Perhaps
most importantly, the vested interests
supporting existing international financial
governance arrangements continue to
impede the possibility of implementing
lessons drawn from the experience. Such
interests are generally supported by
conventional wisdom and reinforced by
the financial media.
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| Old
Wine in a New Bottle: Subprime Mortgage
Crisis-Causes and Consequences |
Michael
Mah-Hui Lim |
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This
paper seeks to explain the causes and
consequences of the U.S. subprime mortgage
crisis, and how this crisis has led to
a generalized credit crunch in other financial
sectors that ultimately affects the real
economy. It postulates that, financial
strategies based on market innovations
that have heightened, not reduced, systemic
risks and financial instability led to
the crisis. In addition, the underlying
structural causes of the crisis are located
in the loose monetary policies of central
banks, deregulation, and excess liquidity
in financial markets that is a consequence
of the kind of economic growth that produces
various imbalances. |
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Back
to the Future: Latin America’s Current Development
Strategy |
| Esteban
Pérez Caldentey and Matías
Vernengo |
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Empirical evidence suggests
that the good economic performance of
Latin America in the last 6 years (including
2007-8) is increasingly and strongly
correlated either with a positive terms-of-trade
shock, mostly in South America, or with
the increase in the flow of remittances,
particularly in Central and North America.
In other words, Latin America now exports
commodities and people. The paper shows
the possible limitations of this development
strategy.
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| Global
Liquidity and Financial Flows to Developing
Countries: New Trends in Emerging Markets
and their Implications |
| C.P.
Chandrasekhar |
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This
paper attempts to examine the factors
responsible for the recent revival and
surge in capital flows into developing
countries and the qualitative changes
in financial integration that are accompanying
this surge. The paper also looks at the
impact that this surge is having on financial
volatility and vulnerability, macroeconomic
management and growth, in countries that
have been “successful” in attracting such
flows. It argues that post financial liberalisation,
supply side factors have primarily caused
the surge while the resultant changes
in the financial structure has implications
for the accumulation of risk and vulnerability
to financial crisis in markets where agents
tend to herd.
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| The
Current Global Financial Turmoil and Asian
Developing Countries |
| Yilmaz
Akyüz |
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The resilience of emerging
markets to direct and indirect shocks
from the current financial crisis in
the US will play an important role in
determining global growth and stability
in the near future, since much of it
has been due to expansion in these economies,
notably in Asia. This paper explores
the extent to which growth and stability
in Asian emerging markets can be decoupled
and this the paper argues crucially
depends on prevailing domestic economic
conditions as well as the policy response
to possible shocks from the crisis.
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| Consumers
and Demand |
| Ben
Fine |
|
This
paper discusses the limitations of the
theory of the consumer, and of demand,
which lies at the heart of mainstream
economics. This paper seeks to explain
why consumer theory evolved like this
and, despite its narrowness and deficiencies,
has expanded its scope of application
both within economics and across other
social sciences. The paper finally offers
a broad sketch of an alternative approach
to consumer theory, one that draws upon
political economy that is necessarily
interdisciplinary. The final section discusses
some of the wider implications of developments
in and around consumer theory for the
nature and prospects of economics as a
discipline.
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| Oil
and Challenges of Trade Policy Making in
Sudan in a Globalizing Arena |
| Mehdi
Shafaeddin |
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This paper examines the
potential impact of oil revenues on
the economy of Sudan and the challenges
facing the Government in policy making;
particularly trade policy, allocation
of oil revenues for long-run development,
and diversification of the production
and export structure of the economy.
Developing a conceptual framework of
analysis, the author argues that while
export of petroleum provides financial
resources for the acceleration of investment
and growth, prospects for sustained
growth and diversification will be still
limited by some physical and institutional
bottlenecks, not easily overcome by
just oil revenues. Export of oil may
also have other negative effects on
Sudan’s economy.
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| Minsky's
"Cushions of Safety", Systemic
Risk and the Crisis in the US Subprime Mortgage
Market |
| Jan
Kregel |
|
The
sub prime crisis in the US has little
to do with the mortgage market, or subprime
mortgages per se, but rather with the
basic structure of the financial system
that produces overestimates of creditworthiness
and underpricing of risk. The bottom line
is that the system has been structured
to make credit too cheap, leading to excessive
risk in order to provide higher returns.
The financial fragility that was identified
in Minsky's work cannot be eliminated,
only damped by systemic policies. However,
it is possible to eliminate fragility
that emerges from the structure and regulation
of the financial system.
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| Managing
Financial Instability in Emerging Markets
: A Keynesian Perspective |
| Yilmaz
Akyüz |
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This paper examines the
extent to which Keynesian thinking could
help understand the causes and dynamics
of crises in emerging markets and provide
suitable policy prescriptions. It concludes
that at the analytical level the endogenous
unstable dynamics analyzed by post Keynesians,
notably Hyman Minsky, goes a long way
in providing a powerful framework for
explaining the boom-bust cycles driven
by international capital flows in emerging
markets. The paper also points out the
need to develop new instruments for
stabilization, placing greater emphasis
on countercyclical financial regulations
and control than has hitherto been the
case.
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| The
Main Lesson from the Asian Crisis: ''Dragons''
Should Not Fundamentally Change Their Policies |
| Kunibert
Raffer |
|
This
paper argues that liberating themselves
from the dictates of the international
financial institutions seems to be the
optimal policy response for the Asian
economies, because the ''reforms'' demanded
by IFIs not only left untreated the problem
triggering the Asian crisis of the nineties,
but instead tried to enforce an unfeasible
set of neoliberal policies. In addition,
the IFIs actually took economic advantage
of the crisis.
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| Climate
Change and its Implications: Which Way Now?
|
| Praveen
Jha |
|
The impact of climate
change on the world of today and the
future is undeniable. Stipulated emission
reduction targets for developed countries
are still too modest under the Kyoto
Protocol and the US, the world's largest
polluter remains outside the agreement.
The scientific community warns that
a global coordinated response with participation
of the major emitters and rapidly growing
economies of China and India is the
only way forward to avoid the worse
predicted effects of global warming.
This paper reviews the debates and attempts
to trace the path to the future.
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| Social
Inequality in Land Ownership in India: A
Study with particular reference to West
Bengal |
| Aparajita
Bakshi |
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This
paper deals with an important form of
discrimination in the countryside, the
lack of access of Dalit (Scheduled Caste)
and Adivasi (Scheduled Tribe) households
to ownership and operational holdings
of land in rural India. It includes a
case study of the impact of land reforms
in one State of India, West Bengal, on
land holding among Dalit and Adivasi households.
The aim of this paper is to determine
Dalit households' access to land for production,
and compare this access with that of other
social groups. The findings suggest that
the land redistribution programme followed
in the state has increased land access
for such marginalised groups. |
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